Understanding Aaron Jones in a Fantasy Football Context
Aaron Jones is a running back currently with the Minnesota Vikings. He was previously the lead back for Green Bay for several years. If you are looking at him from a fantasy or DFS angle, you need to look at his role change and not just his old production numbers. When Jones left Green Bay, a lot of people treated him like the same player he was in 2019 when he rushed for over 1,200 yards and eleven touchdowns. That is a mistake. In Minnesota, his workload is split with Jordan Mason and the team uses a more committee approach. The Vikings do not run to a single bell cow the way the Packers did under Matt LaFleur. I managed a fantasy team where I started Jones based on his Packers volume norms. The problem was I did not adjust for Minnesota's run distribution. They average more plays from scrimmage but split carries in a way that limits weekly floor. Jones still scores, but his ceiling is lower than it used to be because the offense spreads the rushing touches around more evenly. The workaround I found was to treat him as a high-upside flex play rather than a weekly RB1 starter. I watched his snap count and goal line touches rather than just looking at the game script on paper.
One thing people miss about Jones is his receiving work. In Green Bay he saw about six targets per game on average. In Minnesota that number has dropped closer to four. The red zone role is still there but not as heavy as it was. If you are drafting him, understand that his touchdown upside is real but his target share is not what it was. That changes his weekly projection significantly.
What to watch when using him in a lineup
Check the defensive matchup before you start him. Minnesota's offense struggles when they are forced into passing downs because the run game gets one dimensional. If the Vikings are playing a team that stacks the box and forces the secondary to carry the load, Jones gets fewer opportunities to break big runs. I learned this the hard way in a league where I sat him against a light box defense thinking he would be out of the game early. Instead, the game script flipped and he got more touches in the second half than expected. Don't overindex on one metric. Also monitor the offensive line. Minnesota's front has had injury issues in recent seasons and that directly impacts Jones' yards after contact. When the left tackle is healthy, his average yard per carry jumps by almost a full yard. You can find this info on injury reports and snap charts, which are available on most fantasy platforms now. If you are managing a roster, keep an eye on backup Jordan Mason. If Mason picks up three or four extra carries in any game, that is a sign the committee is shifting and Jones' workload is about to compress. I have found that checking in-game carry distribution at halftime is a reliable signal for waiver wire moves during the season.
Get the Full Details
