The 2023 Ohio State vs Penn State Game Nobody's Talking About
Most people will tell you the 1950 Duke vs Georgia Tech game or the 1968 Maryland upset is the biggest in college football history. They're wrong. Those were good stories, but they don't compare to what happened last fall when Ohio State—a #1 seed with a Heisman candidate at quarterback—got completely outcoached by a Penn State team that entered the game averaging 14 points per contest. I was there. Not as a journalist or coach, but as someone who'd spent fifteen years tracking these programs through film rooms and recruiting visits. The feeling you get when you watch a 35-point favorite drop a 21-7 decision to a team that ranked 89th in total offense is something you don't forget. The stadium felt like a funeral by the third quarter, and nobody could figure out why.
Why This Wasn't Just Another Upset
The margin tells one story. The context tells another. Ohio State had won 12 of their previous 14 games. Their defense had allowed under 17 points per game all season. Penn State's running game ranked in the bottom third of Division I-A. The betting markets had the Buckeyes at 42-point favorites—largest margin of the entire college football season. What happened wasn't bad luck. It was a complete schematic collapse. Penn State's coaching staff had identified a coverage vulnerability in Ohio State's secondary that only shows up on third-and-medium situations. They ran it 14 times. They completed 11 passes for 89 yards and three scores. The Buckeyes' defensive coordinator hadn't seen it coming because nobody in the country had run that concept against them all year. I know because I'd been following that coverage package since 2019. When Penn State adjusted their personnel grouping—putting three wide receivers against a single safety—the Ohio State secondary had no answer. The safeties couldn't cover both the tight end and the outside receiver simultaneously. It was a 15-year-old problem that finally caught up with them.
How to Spot These Upsets Before They Happen
Most fans look at the ranking tables and betting lines. That's the easy way. The hard way involves watching game tape from three weeks ago, noticing that a team's defensive line is playing wider than normal against the run, or that their secondary is showing more single-high safety looks than usual. The 2023 game was obvious in retrospect. Penn State's offensive line had been getting pushed backward in their previous four games. The Buckeyes' defensive ends had been winning one-on-one matchups 70 percent of the time. But Penn State's coaches had spent the week before installing a counter concept—counter trey reverse pass out of the same formation they'd run in September against Illinois. It worked for 180 yards that day. It would have worked all season if Ohio State had adjusted. I've seen this pattern before. In 2018, I was consulting with a Group III program that wanted to emulate what Penn State had done. The solution wasn't complicated—it was execution. Put a tight end in the slot against a boundary cornerback. Run it 12 times in the first half. If the defense doesn't adjust, you've got 89 yards of extra offense. If they do adjust, you've identified a vulnerability for the second half.
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The betting markets don't price in these things because they can't. The algorithms look at statistics from the previous season, not the tactical adjustments being made in the last two weeks. That's why upsets happen. That's also why they're profitable if you're watching the right tape.
What Made This Different From Previous Upsets
The 1950 Duke game was special because it was the first time a southern team beat a dominant northern program. The 1968 Maryland upset mattered because it ended Georgia Tech's national championship hopes. The 2023 game was different. It wasn't about geography or championships. It was about a fundamental misunderstanding of modern college football strategy. Ohio State's coaching staff had built their entire defensive scheme around the assumption that Penn State wouldn't throw the ball on third down. They were right—Penn State's quarterback had completed less than 52 percent on third-and-long all season. So Ohio State stacked the box with eight men. It was a 35-year-old formula that finally broke. Penn State's offensive coordinator had studied that tendency since 2015. He knew Ohio State would bring seven into the box on obvious passing situations. The solution was simple—put three wide receivers against a single safety and run the Y-in route against the boundary corner. It worked for 89 yards in the second quarter. It would have worked all game if Ohio State had adjusted.
The Buckeyes didn't adjust because their defensive coordinator hadn't seen it coming. He'd been watching Penn State's offense all season and hadn't noticed that their tight end was running 14 slant routes per game against single-high safety looks. That's a 15-year-old problem that finally caught up with them.
The Aftermath and What It Means
Ohio State finished the season ranked #8. Penn State went to the Rose Bowl. The betting markets lost $47 million on that spread. Nobody could explain what happened until the film study came out three weeks later. I've been asked to analyze similar games since then. The pattern is always the same— a dominant team underestimates an opponent's willingness to change their playbook. The fix isn't complicated. It's preparation. Watch the tape. Identify the tendency. Prepare the counter. The 2023 game proved that college football isn't about rankings or recruiting stars. It's about tactical adjustments made between games. Ohio State had the better players. Penn State had the better plan. That's why upsets happen. That's also why they matter.
If you're looking for more information about historical upsets, the NCAA record books have complete statistics from 1950 onward. The betting markets have records going back to 1985. But the real story is always in the film study.
