Advertisement
| bloomberg economic surprise index: The Economic Indicator Handbook Richard Yamarone, 2017-01-17 Analyze key indicators more accurately to make smarter market moves The Economic Indicator Handbook helps investors more easily evaluate economic trends, to better inform investment decision making and other key strategic financial planning. Written by a Bloomberg Senior Economist, this book presents a visual distillation of the indicators every investor should follow, with clear explanation of how they're measured, what they mean, and how that should inform investment thinking. The focus on graphics, professional application, Bloomberg terminal functionality, and practicality makes this guide a quick, actionable read that could immediately start improving investment outcomes. Coverage includes gross domestic product, employment data, industrial production, new residential construction, consumer confidence, retail and food service sales, and commodities, plus guidance on the secret indicators few economists know or care about. Past performance can predict future results – if you know how to read the indicators. Modern investing requires a careful understanding of the macroeconomic forces that lift and topple markets on a regular basis, and how they shift to move entire economies. This book is a visual guide to recognizing these forces and tracking their behavior, helping investors identify entry and exit points that maximize profit and minimize loss. Quickly evaluate economic trends Make more informed investment decisions Understand the most essential indicators Translate predictions into profitable actions Savvy market participants know how critical certain indicators are to the formulation of a profitable, effective market strategy. A daily indicator check can inform day-to-day investing, and long-term tracking can result in a stronger, more robust portfolio. For the investor who knows that better information leads to better outcomes, The Economic Indicator Handbook is an exceptionally useful resource. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Alternative Economic Indicators C. James Hueng, 2020-09-08 Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Multi-Asset Investing Yoram Lustig, 2013-01-07 Planning, constructing and managing a multi-asset portfolio A multi-asset investment management approach provides diversification benefits, enhances risk-adjusted returns and enables a portfolio to be tailored to a wide range of investing objectives, whether these are generating returns or income, or matching liabilities. This book is divided into four parts that follow the four stages of the multi-asset investment management process: 1. Establishing objectives: Defining the return objectives, risk objectives and investment constraints of a portfolio. 2. Setting an investment strategy: Setting a plan to achieve investment objectives by thinking about long-term strategic asset allocation, combining asset classes and optimisation to derive the most efficient asset allocation. 3. Implementing a solution: Turning the investment strategy into a portfolio using short-term tactical asset allocation, investment selection and risk management. This section includes examples of investment strategies. 4. Reviewing: Evaluating the performance of a portfolio by examining results, risk, portfolio positioning and the economic environment. By dividing the multi-asset investment process into these well-defined stages, Yoram Lustig guides the reader through the various decisions that have to be made and actions that have to be taken. He builds carefully from defining investment objectives, formulating an investment strategy and the steps of selecting investments, leading to constructing and managing multi-asset portfolios. At each stage the considerations and strategies to be undertaken are detailed, and the description of the process is supported with relevant financial theory as well as practical, real-life examples. 'Multi-asset Investing' is an essential handbook for the modern approach to investment portfolio management. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Surprise, Surprise Nasha Maveé, Mr.Roberto Perrelli, Mr.Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2016-10-17 This paper investigates possible drivers of volatility in the South African rand since the onset of the global financial crisis. We assess the role played by local and international economic surprises, commodity price volatility, global market risk perceptions, and local political uncertainty. As a measure of rand volatility, the study uses a market-based implied volatility indicator for the rand / U.S. dollar exchange rate. Economic surprises—the difference between market expectations and data prints—are captured by Citi’s Economic Surprise Index which is available for South Africa and its main economic partners. The results suggest that rand volatility is mainly driven by commodity price volatility, and global market volatility, as well as domestic political uncertainty. In addition, economic surprises originating in the United States matter, but not those originating from South Africa, Europe, or China. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Trading Fixed Income and FX in Emerging Markets Dirk Willer, Ram Bala Chandran, Kenneth Lam, 2020-09-02 A practitioner's guide to finding alpha in fixed income trading in emerging markets Emerging fixed income markets are both large and fast growing. China, currently the second largest economy in the world, is predicted to overtake the United States by 2030. Chinese fixed income markets are worth more than $11 trillion USD and are being added to global fixed income indices starting in 2019. Access for foreigners to the Indian fixed income market, valued at almost 1trn USD, is also becoming easier – a trend repeated in emerging markets around the world. The move to include large Emerging Market (EM) fixed income markets into non-EM benchmarks requires non-EM specialists to understand EM fixed income. Trading Fixed Income in Emerging Markets examines the principle drivers for EM fixed income investing. This timely guide suggests a more systematic approach to EM fixed income trading with a focus on practical trading rules on how to generate alpha, assisting EM practitioners to limit market-share losses to passive investment vehicles. The definitive text on trading EM fixed income, this book is heavily data-driven – every trading rule is thoroughly back-tested over the last 10+ years. Case studies help readers identify and benefit from market regularities, while discussions of the business cycle and typical EM events inform and optimise trading strategies. Topics include portfolio construction, how to apply ESG principles to EM and the future of EM investing in the realm of Big Data and machine learning. Written by practitioners for practitioners, this book: Provides effective, immediately-accessible tools Covers all three fixed income asset classes: EMFX, EM local rates and EM credit Thoroughly analyses the impact of the global macro cycle on EM investing Examines the influence of the financial rise of China and its fixed income markets Includes case studies of trades that illustrate how markets typically behave in certain situations The first book of its kind, Trading Fixed Income in Emerging Markets: A Practitioner’s Guide is an indispensable resource for EM fund managers, analysts and strategists, sell-side professionals in EM and non-EM specialists considering activity in emerging markets. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: TURKISH ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ECONOMICS ICE-TEA 2018 Ercan Uygur, Huseyin Karamelikli, 2018-12-31 |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Understanding Systemic Risk in Global Financial Markets Aron Gottesman, Michael Leibrock, 2017-06-15 An accessible and detailed overview of the risks posed by financial institutions Understanding Systemic Risk in Global Financial Markets offers an accessible yet detailed overview of the risks to financial stability posed by financial institutions designated as systemically important. The types of firms covered are primarily systemically important banks, non-banks, and financial market utilities such as central counterparties. Written by Aron Gottesman and Michael Leibrock, experts on the topic of systemic risk, this vital resource puts the spotlight on coherency, practitioner relevance, conceptual explanations, and practical exposition. Step by step, the authors explore the specific regulations enacted before and after the credit crisis of 2007-2009 to promote financial stability. The text also examines the criteria used by financial regulators to designate firms as systemically important. The quantitative and qualitative methods to measure the ongoing risks posed by systemically important financial institutions are surveyed. A review of the regulations that identify systemically important financial institutions The tools to use to detect early warning indications of default A review of historical systemic events their common causes Techniques to measure interconnectedness Approaches for ranking the order the institutions which pose the greatest degree of default risk to the industry Understanding Systemic Risk in Global Financial Markets offers a must-have guide to the fundamentals of systemic risk and the key critical policies that work to reduce systemic risk and promoting financial stability. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Global Economic Prospects, June 2015 The World Bank, 2015-06-22 Global growth is expected to be 2.8 percent in 2015, but is expected to pick up to 3.2 percent in 2016-17. Growth in developing countries and some high-income countries is set to disappoint again this year. The prospect of rising borrowing costs will compound the challenges many developing countries are facing as they adapt to an era of low commodity prices. Risks to this outlook remain tilted to the downside. This edition of Global Economic Prospects includes two Special Features that analyze the policy challenges raised by the two transitions in developing countries: the risks associated with the first U.S. central bank interest rate increase since 2006 and the implications of persistently low commodity prices for low-income countries. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Dynamic Connectedness of Asian Equity Markets Roberto Guimarães-Filho, Mr.Gee Hee Hong, 2016-03-10 Understanding how markets are connected and shocks are transmitted is an important issue for policymakers and market participants. In this paper, we examine the connectedness of Asian equity markets within the region and vis-à-vis other major global markets. Using time-varying connectedness measures, we address the following questions: (1) How has connectedness in asset returns and volatilities changed over time? Do markets become more connected during crises periods? (2) Which markets are major sources and major recipients of shocks? Has there been a shift in terms of the net shock givers and shock receivers (directional connectedness over time)? Finally, we investigate the connectedness between China’s equity markets and other countries’ equity markets since August 2015 to highlight the growing importance of emerging market economies, particularly China, as sources of shocks. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Macroeconomic Shocks and Unconventional Monetary Policy Naoyuki Yoshino, Pornpinun Chantapacdepong, Matthias Helble, 2019-06-20 Barely two decades after the Asian financial crisis Asia was suddenly confronted with multiple challenges originating outside the region: the 2008 global financial crisis, the European debt crisis, and finally developed economies' implementation of unconventional monetary policies. The implementation of quantitative easing, ultra-low interest rate policies, and negative interest rate policies by a number of large central banks has given rise to concerns over financial stability and international capital flows. Macroeconomic Shocks and Unconventional Monetary Policy: Impacts on Emerging Markets explains how shocks stemming from the global financial crisis have affected macroeconomic and financial stability in emerging Asia. Macroeconomic Shocks and Unconventional Monetary Policy: Impacts on Emerging Markets brings together the most up-to-date knowledge impacts of recent macroeconomic shocks on Asia's real economy; the spillover effects of macroeconomic shocks on financial markets and flows in Asia; and key challenges for monetary, exchange rate, trade and macro prudential policies of developing Asian economies. It is authored by experts in the field of international macroeconomics from leading academic institutions, central banks, and international organizations including the International Monetary Fund, the Bank for International Settlement, and the Asian Development Bank Institute. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: The Fearful Rise of Markets John Authers, 2010-04-08 Are we barreling toward another massive global financial catastrophe? How can so many bubbles form all at once? Why are so many “disconnected” markets now capable of collapsing in unison? In this remarkably readable book, award-winning Financial Times columnist John Authers takes on these critical questions and offers deeply sobering answers. Authers reveals how the first truly global super bubble was inflated—and might now be inflating again. He illuminates the multiple roots of repeated financial crises: a massive shift in investing power from individuals to big institutions; the migration of key decisions from banks to capital markets; the wholesale financialization of many asset classes; and fundamental failures of both theory and policy. The Fearful Rise of Markets presents a truly global view, avoiding oversimplifications and ideology as it outlines how we got here and where we stand. Even more valuable, it offers realistic solutions—for decision-makers who want to prevent disaster and investors who want to survive it. The herd grows ever larger—and more dangerous How institutional investing, indexing, and efficient markets theory promote herding Cheap money and irrational exuberance Super fuel for super bubbles Too big to fail: the whole story of moral hazard Banks, hedge funds, and beyond Danger signs of the next bubble Forex, equity, credit, and commodity markets move once more in alignment |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Understanding China's Economic Indicators Thomas Orlik, 2011-07-07 In Understanding China’s Economic Indicators, leading economist and Wall Street Journal columnist Thomas M. Orlik introduces 35 of China's most significant economic statistics. Orlik explains why each indicator matters, how it is collected and computed, and its impact on equity, commodity, and currency markets. As China has emerged as a central player in the global economy, more and more investors are seeking profitable opportunities there. To choose the right investments, it's crucial to understand China's economic environment–and that means finding, interpreting, and utilizing China's growing base of economic indicators. Orlik helps investors make sense of data on everything from Chinese GDP growth to inflation, unemployment, bond yields, electricity production, and aircraft passenger numbers. He draws on the best information supplied by the Chinese government's statistical agency, ministries, and industry associations, as well as private sources. Each indicator is clearly described, along with a practical discussion of its implications for investors. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Global Financial Stability Report, October 2012 International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department, 2012-11-30 The October 2012 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) finds increased risks to the global financial system, with the euro area crisis the principal source of concern, and urges policymakers to act now to restore confidence, reverse capital flight, and reintegrate the euro zone. This GFSR presents a report on whether regulatory reforms are moving the financial system in the right direction, and finds that progress has been limited, partly because many reforms are in the early stages of implementation and partly because crisis intervention methods are still in use in a number of economies, delaying the movement of the financial system onto a safer path. The final chapter examines whether certain aspects of financial structure enhance economic outcomes. Indeed, some structural features are associated with better outcomes. In particular, financial buffers made up of high-quality capital and truly liquid assets tend to be associated with better economic performance. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: The Rise and Fall of American Growth Robert J. Gordon, 2017-08-29 How America's high standard of living came to be and why future growth is under threat In the century after the Civil War, an economic revolution improved the American standard of living in ways previously unimaginable. Electric lighting, indoor plumbing, motor vehicles, air travel, and television transformed households and workplaces. But has that era of unprecedented growth come to an end? Weaving together a vivid narrative, historical anecdotes, and economic analysis, The Rise and Fall of American Growth challenges the view that economic growth will continue unabated, and demonstrates that the life-altering scale of innovations between 1870 and 1970 cannot be repeated. Gordon contends that the nation's productivity growth will be further held back by the headwinds of rising inequality, stagnating education, an aging population, and the rising debt of college students and the federal government, and that we must find new solutions. A critical voice in the most pressing debates of our time, The Rise and Fall of American Growth is at once a tribute to a century of radical change and a harbinger of tougher times to come. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Finland International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department, 2017-01-11 This Technical Note discusses the results of stress testing of Finland’s banking system. Despite high capitalization levels, there are important vulnerabilities in the Finnish banking system. Near-term risks are largely tilted to the downside, stemming from both external and domestic sources. A sharper-than-expected global growth slowdown would be a drag on Finland’s export and GDP growth. Although so far high compared with the rest of the euro area banks, Finnish banks’ profitability is facing challenges from the low interest rate environment and the low economic growth. Vulnerabilities include funding risks, contagion risks, and challenges related to long-term profitability. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Global Economic Prospects, January 2022 World Bank Group, 2022-01-01 Although the global economy is emerging from the collapse triggered by COVID-19, the recovery is likely to be subdued, and global GDP is projected to remain well below its pre-pandemic trend for a prolonged period. Several risks cloud the outlook, including those related to the pandemic and to rapidly rising debt. The pandemic has further diminished already-weak growth prospects for the next decade. Decisive policy actions will be critical in raising the likelihood of better growth outcomes while warding off worse ones. Immediate priorities include supporting vulnerable groups and ensuring a prompt and widespread vaccination process to bring the pandemic under control. Although macroeconomic policy support will continue to be important, limited fiscal policy space amid high debt highlights the need for an ambitious reform agenda that bolsters growth prospects. To address many of these challenges, global cooperation will be key. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations Juan Angel Garcia, Sebastian Werner, 2018-07-19 Do euro area inflation expectations remain well-anchored? This paper finds that the protracted period of low (and below-target) inflation in the euro area since 2013 has weakened their anchoring. Testing their sensitivity to inflation and macroeconomic news, this paper expands existing results in two key dimensions. First, by analyzing all available (advanced) inflation releases. Second, the reactions of expectations are investigated at daily, time-varying and intraday frequency regressions to add robustness to our conclusions. Results point to a significant impact of inflation news over recent years that had not been observed before in the euro area. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time Troy Matheson, 2011-02-01 We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the indicators generally produce good GDP growth forecasts relative to a range of time series models. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 World Bank, 2021-08-03 The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2021 World Bank, 2021-10-05 Although global economic activity is recovering and output in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is expected to grow in 2021, containing COVID-19 remains a challenge in the region. Enterprise survey data for the emerging and developing countries in the region show that COVID-19 had a profound and heterogeneous impact on firms. Smaller, younger, and female-run businesses were hit harder and had greater difficulty recovering. But the crisis also played a cleansing role and economic activity in ECA appears to have been reallocated toward more productive firms during the crisis, particularly in countries with more competitive markets. Firms with high pre-crisis labor productivity experienced significantly smaller drops in sales and employment than firms with low pre-crisis labor productivity and were also more likely to adapt to the crisis by increasing online activity and remote work. Many governments in ECA implemented broad policy support schemes to address the initial economic fallout from the crisis. Overall, this government support was more likely to go to less productive and larger firms, regardless of the level of their pre-crisis innovation. As economies enter the economic recovery phase, it will be important for policy makers in all countries to phase out broad policy support measures as soon as appropriate and focus on fostering a competitive business environment, which is key to a strong recovery, resilience to future crises, and sustainable, long-term economic growth. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Quantitative Easing and Credit Rating Agencies Nordine Abidi, Matteo Falagiarda, Ixart Miquel-Flores, 2022-06-03 This paper investigates the behaviour of credit rating agencies using a natural experiment in monetary policy. We exploit the corporate QE of the Eurosystem and its rating-based specific design which generates exogenous variation in the probability for a bond of becoming eligible for outright purchases. We show that after the launch of the policy, rating activity was concentrated precisely on the territory where the incentives of market participants are expected to be more sensitive to the policy design. Our findings contribute to better assessing the consequences of the explicit reliance on CRAs ratings by central banks when designing monetary policy. They also support the Covid-19 monetary stimulus, and in particular the waiver of private credit rating eligibility requirements applied to recently downgraded issuers. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Explainable and Transparent AI and Multi-Agent Systems Davide Calvaresi, Amro Najjar, Michael Winikoff, Kary Främling, 2021-07-16 This book constitutes the proceedings of the Third International Workshop on Explainable, Transparent AI and Multi-Agent Systems, EXTRAAMAS 2021, which was held virtually due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The 19 long revised papers and 1 short contribution were carefully selected from 32 submissions. The papers are organized in the following topical sections: XAI & machine learning; XAI vision, understanding, deployment and evaluation; XAI applications; XAI logic and argumentation; decentralized and heterogeneous XAI. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Economic Review Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2014 |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: โต้คลื่นโลกด้วยกองทุนรวม ณัฐนันท์ บ่างสมบูรณ์, 2020 โลกแห่งการเงินผ่านความผันผวนชนิดที่คาดไม่ถึงคลื่นลูกแล้วลูกเล่าโหมซัดเข้ามา ชนิดที่ไม่ยอมให้พักหายใจบางคนก็รอด แต่บางคนก็ไปไม่ถึงฝั่งฝัน ในสถานการณ์เช่นนี้เราจะทำอย่างไร จึงจะสามารถผ่านคลื่นวิกฤติในปัจจุบันและวางแผนเพื่อนำไปสู่ความมั่งคั่งในอนาคตได้ หนังสือเล่มนี้จะมาเผยเคล็ดวิธีและแนวทางการลงทุนที่จะช่วยให้คุณไปสู่เป้าหมายความมั่งคั่งที่ตั้งเป้าไว้ |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy John Y. Campbell, 2008-11-15 Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Global Financial Stability Report, April 2008 International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department, 2008-04-08 The events of the past six months have demonstrated the fragility of the global financial system and raised fundamental questions about the effectiveness of the response by private and public sector institutions. The report assesses the vulnerabilities that the system is facing and offers tentative conclusions and policy lessons. The report reflects information available up to March 21, 2008. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Global Economic Prospects , 2005 |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Why Does Bad News Increase Volatility and Decrease Leverage? Ms.Ana Fostel, Mr.John Geanakoplos, 2010-09-01 The literature on leverage until now shows how an increase in volatility reduces leverage. However, in order to explain pro-cyclical leverage it assumes that bad news increases volatility. This paper suggests a reason why bad news is more often than not associated with higher future volatility. We show that, in a model with endogenous leverage and heterogeneous beliefs, agents have the incentive to invest mostly in technologies that become volatile in bad times. Together with the old literature this explains pro-cyclical leverage. The result also gives rationale to the pattern of volatility smiles observed in the stock options since 1987. Finally, the paper presents for the first time a dynamic model in which an asset is endogenously traded simultaneously at different margin requirements in equilibrium. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Global Economic Prospects, January 2022 The World Bank, 2022-03-04 Global Economic Prospects, January 2022 |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Global Financial Stability Report, April 2016 International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department, 2016-04-11 The current Global Financial Stability Report (April 2016) finds that global financial stability risks have risen since the last report in October 2015. The new report finds that the outlook has deteriorated in advanced economies because of heightened uncertainty and setbacks to growth and confidence, while declines in oil and commodity prices and slower growth have kept risks elevated in emerging markets. These developments have tightened financial conditions, reduced risk appetite, raised credit risks, and stymied balance sheet repair. A broad-based policy response is needed to secure financial stability. Advanced economies must deal with crisis legacy issues, emerging markets need to bolster their resilience to global headwinds, and the resilience of market liquidity should be enhanced. The report also examines financial spillovers from emerging market economies and finds that they have risen substantially. This implies that when assessing macro-financial conditions, policymakers may need to increasingly take into account economic developments in emerging market economies. Finally, the report assesses changes in the systemic importance of insurers, finding that across advanced economies the contribution of life insurers to systemic risk has increased in recent years. The results suggest that supervisors and regulators should take a more macroprudential approach to the sector. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Financial Stability Review , 2004 |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: A Crisis of Beliefs Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer, 2018-09-11 How investor expectations move markets and the economy The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 caught markets and regulators by surprise. Although the government rushed to rescue other financial institutions from a similar fate after Lehman, it could not prevent the deepest recession in postwar history. A Crisis of Beliefs makes us rethink the financial crisis and the nature of economic risk. In this authoritative and comprehensive book, two of today’s most insightful economists reveal how our beliefs shape financial markets, lead to expansions of credit and leverage, and expose the economy to major risks. Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer carefully walk readers through the unraveling of Lehman Brothers and the ensuing meltdown of the US financial system, and then present new evidence to illustrate the destabilizing role played by the beliefs of home buyers, investors, and regulators. Using the latest research in psychology and behavioral economics, they present a new theory of belief formation that explains why the financial crisis came as such a shock to so many people—and how financial and economic instability persist. A must-read for anyone seeking insights into financial markets, A Crisis of Beliefs shows how even the smartest market participants and regulators did not fully appreciate the extent of economic risk, and offers a new framework for understanding today’s unpredictable financial waters. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Global Financial Stability Report, October 2017 International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept., 2017-10-11 The October 2017 Global Financial Stability Report finds that the global financial system continues to strengthen in response to extraordinary policy support, regulatory enhancements, and the cyclical upturn in growth. It also includes a chapter that examines the short- and medium-term implications for economic growth and financial stability of the past decades’ rise in household debt. It documents large differences in household debt-to-GDP ratios across countries but a common increasing trajectory that was moderated but not reversed by the global financial crisis. Another chapter develops a new macroeconomic measure of financial stability by linking financial conditions to the probability distribution of future GDP growth and applies it to a set of 20 major advanced and emerging market economies. The chapter shows that changes in financial conditions shift the whole distribution of future GDP growth. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: The Intensifying Global Economic Turmoil Bank Indonesia. Annual International Seminar, 2011 |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Global Economic Prospects 2010 World Bank, 2010-02-12 “The crisis has deeply impacted virtually every economy in the world, and although growth has returned, much progress in the fight against poverty has been lost. More difficult international conditions in the years to come will mean that developing countries will have to place even more emphasis on improving domestic economic conditions to achieve the kind of growth that can durably eradicate poverty.� —Justin Yifu Lin, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President The World Bank 'Global Economic Prospects 2010: Crisis, Finance, and Growth' explores both the short- and medium-term impacts of the financial crisis on developing countries. Although global growth has resumed, the recovery is fragile, and unless business and consumer demand strengthen, the world economy could slow down again. Even if, as appears likely, a double-dip recession is avoided, the recovery is expected to be slow. High unemployment and widespread restructuring will continue to characterize the global economy for the next several years. Already, the crisis has provoked large-scale human suffering. Some 64 million more people around the world are expected to be living on less than a $1.25 per day by the end of 2010, and between 30,000 and 50,000 more infants may have died of malnutrition in 2009 in Sub-Saharan Africa, than would have been the case if the crisis had not occurred. Over the medium term, economic growth is expected to recover. But increased risk aversion, a necessary and desirable tightening of financial regulations in high-income countries, and measures to reduce the exposure of developing economies to external shocks are likely to make finance scarcer and more costly than it was during the boom period. As a result, just as the ample liquidity of the early 2000s prompted an investment boom and an acceleration in developing-country potential output, higher costs will likely yield a slowing in developing-country potential growth rates of between 0.2 and 0.7 percentage points, and as much as an 8 percent decline in potential output over the medium term. In the longer term, however, developing countries can more than offset the implications of more expensive international finance by reducing the cost of capital channeled through their domestic financial markets. For more information, please visit www.worldbank.org/gep2010. To access Prospects for the Global Economy, an online companion publication, please visit www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Investing Robert Hagstrom, 2013-01-08 In this updated second edition, well-known investment author Hagstrom explores basic and fundamental investing concepts in a range of fields outside of economics, including physics, biology, sociology, psychology, philosophy, and literature. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: The Global Innovation Index 2013 Cornell University, INSEAD, World Intellectual Property Organization, Bruno Lanvin, Sacha Vincent-Wunsch, Soumitra Dutta, 2013 The Global Innovation Index ranks the innovation performance of 142 countries and economies around the world, based on 84 indicators. This edition explores the impact of innovation-oriented policies on economic growth and development. High-income and developing countries alike are seeking innovation-driven growth through different strategies. Some countries are successfully improving their innovation capacity, while others still struggle. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: 獲利冠軍的價值股交易法則 金兌洪, 2023-05-04 ★用一檔基金，幫客戶狠賺近50%！★ \資深基金經理人、一位頂尖操盤手的獲利告白/// 解析巴菲特的價值投資策略， 輕鬆複製平均年化報酬率20%的複利心法！ 以產業週期和趨勢變化分析漲跌循環， 不只要選對股，更得懂何時加碼•避險•賣出， 順勢交易、安心翻倍獲利。 【有效投資的關鍵：抓住景氣和產業的循環階段】2007年：主操一檔基金，為客戶達成49%的報酬率。 2008年：加入富蘭克林坦伯頓，遭遇雷曼兄弟事件，買入狂跌3成以上的金融股，不到一年、股價上漲超過100%！ 超過20年基金經理人經驗的價值型機構投資人金兌洪，認為投資股票獲利並不難，他也不認為只有大型投資機構才有辦法跑在股價風向之前；只要抓住產業的週期和景氣（趨勢）的循環變化，散戶也能安心投資、穩定獲利。 ◆判讀景氣變化和基本總經指標，用順勢投資走向致富之路 股市變化不難懂，依照當下的利率和政策，了解景氣的四個循環週期，搭配指標分析，準備好迎接多空趨勢，減少錯誤的買賣，脫離慘遭收割的韭菜族。 ◆評估一個產業的週期變化：需求有改變嗎？有創新的技術嗎？ 就算是進入穩定甚至衰退期的產業，都有可能因為需求的變化或創新的技術出現，重新回到高速成長期，把握住這波趨勢的力量，搭上獲利的風向。例如：電動車和自動駕駛（汽車業的創新技術）、航運（需求增加）。 �頂尖經理人希望每個散戶都要懂的基本心法 •完全無法預測的產業，不要浪費時間。（油價╱生技新藥╱氣候變遷） •確定長期投資要下單前，先想像「買進之後，至少三年不能賣」。（忍得住嗎？） •想要逢低加碼、攤平，先確認「基本面」沒事！ •不要買同一種類型的股票（分散類型，如科技、民生、金融等）。 •別「捨不得」賣掉獲利達標的個股！ 投資的時候，最大的敵人就是自己。問問自己，為什麼敢買這支股票？如果說不出三個以上的理由，那是不是單純的跟風呢？此外，散戶還得對抗看到下跌就想脫手的人性本能，如果是被錯殺的優秀公司，股價下跌時反而是逢低買進的好時機。 �價值型機構投資人的3大選股思維 1：以5年為單位，找出產業中的主力股。 未來產業的供應鏈廠商，值得關注；了解各國的核心產業，投資才精準 2：電動車（以及供應鏈）產業，現在投資還不晚！ 根據全球政府的政策，電動車的需求才剛進入成長期 3：投資的核心部位股，要挑「無法被取代」的產業和企業。 品牌力：可口可樂╱獨占技術：Google和蘋果╱核心製造商：台積電 �買進前，業內人一定會檢查的5個關鍵 看到推薦、利多消息的個股，想買進之前，一定要花時間檢驗以下內容。 （1）企業績效：先看年度獲利，再比較每一季的績效 （2）估值：評斷是否為正常的上漲，避免高估 （3）負債比率等財務的穩定性：公司市值越小，就越要確認！ （4）檢視三大法人的買賣超：專門投資機構可參考，但別盲目跟進 （5）K線圖與乖離率：了解利多消息反映在股價上的歷史 ※交易時機的精簡摘要 【選股】如何評估一個產業正在成長？當許多同產業的公司都在增加設廠時。 （注意！獲利的主力商品，是不是很容易被模仿） 【買進】什麼時候可以加碼？產品價格調漲時。 （注意！要看毛利是否增加） 【賣出】起漲的話題股，如何設定賣出點？當同業的競爭設廠蓋好時。 （注意！適用於競品多的產業） 【避險】在市場有風險時，如何分配資產？活用反向型ETF降低持股比重。 （注意！只限短期投資） ?加碼公開，選股方向＆要避開的地雷區? 可以「放心買」的名單：幾乎不可能會倒的產業和企業群（晶片半導體製造商、雲端AI、數位金融、CPU…） 請小心、隨時快跑的名單：未來難以預測發展如何的產業和企業群（百貨、購物、旅遊、鋼鐵、製藥……） ※以上投資評估與買賣時機點詳情請見內文，股市狀況不同，請審慎做出決定 |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Making Of An Economic Superpower, The: Unlocking China's Secret Of Rapid Industrialization Yi Wen, 2016-05-13 The rise of China is no doubt one of the most important events in world economic history since the Industrial Revolution. Mainstream economics, especially the institutional theory of economic development based on a dichotomy of extractive vs. inclusive political institutions, is highly inadequate in explaining China's rise. This book argues that only a radical reinterpretation of the history of the Industrial Revolution and the rise of the West (as incorrectly portrayed by the institutional theory) can fully explain China's growth miracle and why the determined rise of China is unstoppable despite its current 'backward' financial system and political institutions. Conversely, China's spectacular and rapid transformation from an impoverished agrarian society to a formidable industrial superpower sheds considerable light on the fundamental shortcomings of the institutional theory and mainstream 'blackboard' economic models, and provides more-accurate reevaluations of historical episodes such as Africa's enduring poverty trap despite radical political and economic reforms, Latin America's lost decades and frequent debt crises, 19th century Europe's great escape from the Malthusian trap, and the Industrial Revolution itself. |
| bloomberg economic surprise index: Bloomberg Markets , 2008 |
Wait... what? Bloomberg banned DuraCoat from NY in …
Apr 18, 2013 · At a press conference (pdf) in June of 2006, Mayor Bloomberg had this to day about Lauer Custom Weaponry and DuraCoat paints: As …
Bloomberg wants our flintlocks as well. | Georgia Firearm For…
Jul 30, 2009 · Bloomberg wants our flintlocks as well. Jump to Latest 1K views 14 replies 13 participants last post by DecepticonDon Aug 5, 2009
Economy May Not Be Where We Have Been Told
Aug 20, 2024 · THAT'S a pretty big adjustment . . . We won't know who is correct, however, until 2025.
bloomberg on daily show | Georgia Firearm Forums - Ge…
Aug 27, 2010 · I'm posting from my phone so I can't embed a youtube video but bloomberg was on the daily show talking about the mosque …
Wikileaks and Julian Assange | Page 2 - Georgia Packing
Nov 11, 2010 · Moe's article is also a more in-depth look at the same issue as the Bloomberg article above. If you think there was no violence before …
Wait... what? Bloomberg banned DuraCoat from NY in …
Apr 18, 2013 · At a press conference (pdf) in June of 2006, Mayor Bloomberg had this to day about Lauer Custom Weaponry and DuraCoat paints: As …
Bloomberg wants our flintlocks as well. | Georgia Firearm For…
Jul 30, 2009 · Bloomberg wants our flintlocks as well. Jump to Latest 1K views 14 replies 13 participants last post by DecepticonDon Aug 5, 2009
Economy May Not Be Where We Have Been Told
Aug 20, 2024 · THAT'S a pretty big adjustment . . . We won't know who is correct, however, until 2025.
bloomberg on daily show | Georgia Firearm Forums - Ge…
Aug 27, 2010 · I'm posting from my phone so I can't embed a youtube video but bloomberg was on the daily show talking about the mosque …
Wikileaks and Julian Assange | Page 2 - Georgia Packing
Nov 11, 2010 · Moe's article is also a more in-depth look at the same issue as the Bloomberg article above. If you think there was no violence before …
