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| citi economic surprise index: Surprise, Surprise Nasha Maveé, Mr.Roberto Perrelli, Mr.Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2016-10-17 This paper investigates possible drivers of volatility in the South African rand since the onset of the global financial crisis. We assess the role played by local and international economic surprises, commodity price volatility, global market risk perceptions, and local political uncertainty. As a measure of rand volatility, the study uses a market-based implied volatility indicator for the rand / U.S. dollar exchange rate. Economic surprises—the difference between market expectations and data prints—are captured by Citi’s Economic Surprise Index which is available for South Africa and its main economic partners. The results suggest that rand volatility is mainly driven by commodity price volatility, and global market volatility, as well as domestic political uncertainty. In addition, economic surprises originating in the United States matter, but not those originating from South Africa, Europe, or China. |
| citi economic surprise index: Macroeconomic Shocks and Unconventional Monetary Policy Naoyuki Yoshino, Pornpinun Chantapacdepong, Matthias Helble, 2019-06-20 Barely two decades after the Asian financial crisis Asia was suddenly confronted with multiple challenges originating outside the region: the 2008 global financial crisis, the European debt crisis, and finally developed economies' implementation of unconventional monetary policies. The implementation of quantitative easing, ultra-low interest rate policies, and negative interest rate policies by a number of large central banks has given rise to concerns over financial stability and international capital flows. Macroeconomic Shocks and Unconventional Monetary Policy: Impacts on Emerging Markets explains how shocks stemming from the global financial crisis have affected macroeconomic and financial stability in emerging Asia. Macroeconomic Shocks and Unconventional Monetary Policy: Impacts on Emerging Markets brings together the most up-to-date knowledge impacts of recent macroeconomic shocks on Asia's real economy; the spillover effects of macroeconomic shocks on financial markets and flows in Asia; and key challenges for monetary, exchange rate, trade and macro prudential policies of developing Asian economies. It is authored by experts in the field of international macroeconomics from leading academic institutions, central banks, and international organizations including the International Monetary Fund, the Bank for International Settlement, and the Asian Development Bank Institute. |
| citi economic surprise index: Finland International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department, 2017-01-11 This Technical Note discusses the results of stress testing of Finland’s banking system. Despite high capitalization levels, there are important vulnerabilities in the Finnish banking system. Near-term risks are largely tilted to the downside, stemming from both external and domestic sources. A sharper-than-expected global growth slowdown would be a drag on Finland’s export and GDP growth. Although so far high compared with the rest of the euro area banks, Finnish banks’ profitability is facing challenges from the low interest rate environment and the low economic growth. Vulnerabilities include funding risks, contagion risks, and challenges related to long-term profitability. |
| citi economic surprise index: Unloved Bull Markets Craig Callahan, 2022-02-03 Your empowerment tool to consistently winning in the stock market In Unloved Bull Markets: Getting Rich the Easy Way by Riding Bull Markets, a seasoned, award-winning professional money manager delivers an eye-opening and insightful take on a frequently overlooked—and critically important—investing strategy. The author walks readers through a crash-course in how to take full advantage of the greatest opportunity for wealth accumulation: a bull market. With an emphasis on seizing investment opportunities when they actually arise, instead of just watching them recede in the rearview mirror, Unloved Bull Markets explores: The economic indicators that can disguise, fuel, or end a bull market, including inflation and interest rates, the Fed and monetary policy, and unemployment Six common pieces of bad information that lead investors astray and can result in missing out on some of the best market opportunities to come along in decades The perennial discussion and debate between proponents of active management and passive, index investors Unloved Bull Markets is the perfect book for investors who seek to base their decisions on data and logic, rather than fears and intuition, and want to focus on the profitable climb instead of distressing worries. |
| citi economic surprise index: Brazil International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept., 2016-11-15 This paper assesses the importance of financial market developments for the business cycle in Brazil. The results underscore the importance of macro-financial linkages and highlight risks to the recovery going forward. Although some of the rise in credit growth in Brazil can be attributed to financial deepening and rising income levels, it may have implications for economic activity going forward. Cross-country evidence suggests that periods of easy financial conditions can amplify economic fluctuations and possibly lead to adverse economic outcomes. To explore the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle, cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semi-structural model of the Brazilian economy. An advantage of using the model-based approach is that financial and business cycles can be jointly estimated, allowing information from all key economic relationships to be used in a consistent way. Financial sector developments are found to be an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations. Financial accelerator models highlight the role of credit and asset prices in shaping the business cycle. |
| citi economic surprise index: The Relative Effectiveness of Spot and Derivatives Based Intervention Milan Nedeljkovic, Christian Saborowski, 2017-01-27 This paper studies the relative effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in spot and derivatives markets. We make use of Brazilian data where spot and non-deliverable futures based intervention have been used in tandem for more than a decade. The analysis finds evidence in favor of a significant link between both modes of intervention and the first two moments of the real/dollar exchange rate. As predicted by theory for the case of negligible convertibility risk, the impact of spot market intervention in our baseline sample is strikingly similar to that achieved through futures based intervention worth an equivalent amount in notional principal. |
| citi economic surprise index: Understanding Systemic Risk in Global Financial Markets Aron Gottesman, Michael Leibrock, 2017-06-15 An accessible and detailed overview of the risks posed by financial institutions Understanding Systemic Risk in Global Financial Markets offers an accessible yet detailed overview of the risks to financial stability posed by financial institutions designated as systemically important. The types of firms covered are primarily systemically important banks, non-banks, and financial market utilities such as central counterparties. Written by Aron Gottesman and Michael Leibrock, experts on the topic of systemic risk, this vital resource puts the spotlight on coherency, practitioner relevance, conceptual explanations, and practical exposition. Step by step, the authors explore the specific regulations enacted before and after the credit crisis of 2007-2009 to promote financial stability. The text also examines the criteria used by financial regulators to designate firms as systemically important. The quantitative and qualitative methods to measure the ongoing risks posed by systemically important financial institutions are surveyed. A review of the regulations that identify systemically important financial institutions The tools to use to detect early warning indications of default A review of historical systemic events their common causes Techniques to measure interconnectedness Approaches for ranking the order the institutions which pose the greatest degree of default risk to the industry Understanding Systemic Risk in Global Financial Markets offers a must-have guide to the fundamentals of systemic risk and the key critical policies that work to reduce systemic risk and promoting financial stability. |
| citi economic surprise index: ECB Euro Liquidity Lines Silvia Albrizio, Iván Kataryniuk, Luis Molina, Jan Schäfer, 2023-05-05 Central bank liquidity lines have gained momentum since the global financial crisis as a crosscurrency liquidity management tool. We provide a complete timeline of the ECB liquidity line announcements and study their signalling and spillback effects. The announcement of an ECB euro liquidity line decreases the premium paid by foreign agents to borrow euros in FX markets relative to currencies not covered by these facilities by 51 basis points. Consistent with a stylized model, bank equity prices increase by around 1.75% in euro area countries highly exposed via banking linkages to countries whose currencies are targeted by liquidity lines. |
| citi economic surprise index: Global Financial Stability Report, October 2017 International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept., 2017-10-11 The October 2017 Global Financial Stability Report finds that the global financial system continues to strengthen in response to extraordinary policy support, regulatory enhancements, and the cyclical upturn in growth. It also includes a chapter that examines the short- and medium-term implications for economic growth and financial stability of the past decades’ rise in household debt. It documents large differences in household debt-to-GDP ratios across countries but a common increasing trajectory that was moderated but not reversed by the global financial crisis. Another chapter develops a new macroeconomic measure of financial stability by linking financial conditions to the probability distribution of future GDP growth and applies it to a set of 20 major advanced and emerging market economies. The chapter shows that changes in financial conditions shift the whole distribution of future GDP growth. |
| citi economic surprise index: Spillovers from China MissNkunde Mwase, Mr.Papa M N'Diaye, Ms.Hiroko Oura, Mr.Frantisek Ricka, Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, Ms.Yuanyan S Zhang, 2016-09-27 Although China’s much-needed transition to a new growth path is proceeding broadly as expected, the transition is still fraught with uncertainty, including regarding the Chinese authorities’ ability to achieve a smooth rebalancing of growth and the extent of the attendant slowdown in activity. Thus, in the short run, the transition process is likely to entail significant spillovers through trade and commodities, and possibly financial channels. This note sheds some light on the size and nature of financial spillovers from China by looking at the impact of developments in China on global financial markets, with a particular emphasis on differentiation across asset classes and markets. The note shows that economic and financial developments in China have a significant impact on global financial markets, but these effects reflect primarily the central role the country plays in goods trade and commodity markets, rather than China’s financial integration in global markets and the direct financial linkages it has with other countries. |
| citi economic surprise index: Geopolitical Alpha Marko Papic, 2020-10-06 Forecast geopolitics and markets with this clear and insightful resource Geopolitical Alpha – An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights. Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from smoke-filled rooms, and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers. In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses: What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance. |
| citi economic surprise index: Trading Fixed Income and FX in Emerging Markets Dirk Willer, Ram Bala Chandran, Kenneth Lam, 2020-09-02 A practitioner's guide to finding alpha in fixed income trading in emerging markets Emerging fixed income markets are both large and fast growing. China, currently the second largest economy in the world, is predicted to overtake the United States by 2030. Chinese fixed income markets are worth more than $11 trillion USD and are being added to global fixed income indices starting in 2019. Access for foreigners to the Indian fixed income market, valued at almost 1trn USD, is also becoming easier – a trend repeated in emerging markets around the world. The move to include large Emerging Market (EM) fixed income markets into non-EM benchmarks requires non-EM specialists to understand EM fixed income. Trading Fixed Income in Emerging Markets examines the principle drivers for EM fixed income investing. This timely guide suggests a more systematic approach to EM fixed income trading with a focus on practical trading rules on how to generate alpha, assisting EM practitioners to limit market-share losses to passive investment vehicles. The definitive text on trading EM fixed income, this book is heavily data-driven – every trading rule is thoroughly back-tested over the last 10+ years. Case studies help readers identify and benefit from market regularities, while discussions of the business cycle and typical EM events inform and optimise trading strategies. Topics include portfolio construction, how to apply ESG principles to EM and the future of EM investing in the realm of Big Data and machine learning. Written by practitioners for practitioners, this book: Provides effective, immediately-accessible tools Covers all three fixed income asset classes: EMFX, EM local rates and EM credit Thoroughly analyses the impact of the global macro cycle on EM investing Examines the influence of the financial rise of China and its fixed income markets Includes case studies of trades that illustrate how markets typically behave in certain situations The first book of its kind, Trading Fixed Income in Emerging Markets: A Practitioner’s Guide is an indispensable resource for EM fund managers, analysts and strategists, sell-side professionals in EM and non-EM specialists considering activity in emerging markets. |
| citi economic surprise index: Financial Stability Review , 2004 |
| citi economic surprise index: The Intensifying Global Economic Turmoil Bank Indonesia. Annual International Seminar, 2011 |
| citi economic surprise index: Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2021 World Bank, 2021-10-05 Although global economic activity is recovering and output in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is expected to grow in 2021, containing COVID-19 remains a challenge in the region. Enterprise survey data for the emerging and developing countries in the region show that COVID-19 had a profound and heterogeneous impact on firms. Smaller, younger, and female-run businesses were hit harder and had greater difficulty recovering. But the crisis also played a cleansing role and economic activity in ECA appears to have been reallocated toward more productive firms during the crisis, particularly in countries with more competitive markets. Firms with high pre-crisis labor productivity experienced significantly smaller drops in sales and employment than firms with low pre-crisis labor productivity and were also more likely to adapt to the crisis by increasing online activity and remote work. Many governments in ECA implemented broad policy support schemes to address the initial economic fallout from the crisis. Overall, this government support was more likely to go to less productive and larger firms, regardless of the level of their pre-crisis innovation. As economies enter the economic recovery phase, it will be important for policy makers in all countries to phase out broad policy support measures as soon as appropriate and focus on fostering a competitive business environment, which is key to a strong recovery, resilience to future crises, and sustainable, long-term economic growth. |
| citi economic surprise index: The Next Money Crash—And a Reconstruction Blueprint Uli Kortsch, 2020-12-28 This book lays out an action plan with some room for improvisation. Will we have the courage to act? Kicking the proverbial can down the road feels easy in the moment but can lead to devastating consequences. The point of a system redesign is to acknowledge we have a broken monetary system, that has drifted far away from serving “We the People” . There is a growing recognition, even within the Federal Reserve, that something is wrong. The needed actions described here on money and banking can restore a better balance for all. With knowledge there is true power. |
| citi economic surprise index: โต้คลื่นโลกด้วยกองทุนรวม ณัฐนันท์ บ่างสมบูรณ์, 2020 โลกแห่งการเงินผ่านความผันผวนชนิดที่คาดไม่ถึงคลื่นลูกแล้วลูกเล่าโหมซัดเข้ามา ชนิดที่ไม่ยอมให้พักหายใจบางคนก็รอด แต่บางคนก็ไปไม่ถึงฝั่งฝัน ในสถานการณ์เช่นนี้เราจะทำอย่างไร จึงจะสามารถผ่านคลื่นวิกฤติในปัจจุบันและวางแผนเพื่อนำไปสู่ความมั่งคั่งในอนาคตได้ หนังสือเล่มนี้จะมาเผยเคล็ดวิธีและแนวทางการลงทุนที่จะช่วยให้คุณไปสู่เป้าหมายความมั่งคั่งที่ตั้งเป้าไว้ |
| citi economic surprise index: Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases. Applied Data Science and Demo Track Yuxiao Dong, Georgiana Ifrim, Dunja Mladenić, Craig Saunders, Sofie Van Hoecke, 2021-02-24 The 5-volume proceedings, LNAI 12457 until 12461 constitutes the refereed proceedings of the European Conference on Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, ECML PKDD 2020, which was held during September 14-18, 2020. The conference was planned to take place in Ghent, Belgium, but had to change to an online format due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The 232 full papers and 10 demo papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected for inclusion in the proceedings. The volumes are organized in topical sections as follows: Part I: Pattern Mining; clustering; privacy and fairness; (social) network analysis and computational social science; dimensionality reduction and autoencoders; domain adaptation; sketching, sampling, and binary projections; graphical models and causality; (spatio-) temporal data and recurrent neural networks; collaborative filtering and matrix completion. Part II: deep learning optimization and theory; active learning; adversarial learning; federated learning; Kernel methods and online learning; partial label learning; reinforcement learning; transfer and multi-task learning; Bayesian optimization and few-shot learning. Part III: Combinatorial optimization; large-scale optimization and differential privacy; boosting and ensemble methods; Bayesian methods; architecture of neural networks; graph neural networks; Gaussian processes; computer vision and image processing; natural language processing; bioinformatics. Part IV: applied data science: recommendation; applied data science: anomaly detection; applied data science: Web mining; applied data science: transportation; applied data science: activity recognition; applied data science: hardware and manufacturing; applied data science: spatiotemporal data. Part V: applied data science: social good; applied data science: healthcare; applied data science: e-commerce and finance; applied data science: computational social science; applied data science: sports; demo track. |
| citi economic surprise index: TURKISH ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ECONOMICS ICE-TEA 2018 Ercan Uygur, Huseyin Karamelikli, 2018-12-31 |
| citi economic surprise index: The Financial Times Guide to Saving and Investing for Retirement Yoram Lustig, 2016-05-23 |
| citi economic surprise index: 경제지표를 읽는 시간 빈센트(김두언), 2023-04-26 한 치 앞도 예측할 수 없는 불확실성의 시대를 헤쳐 나가는 방법은 무엇일까? 그중 하나는 바로 경제지표를 읽는 능력을 기르는 것이다. 다른 이보다 한발 앞서 부의 흐름을 이해하고 곧 다가올 변화를 예측하기 위해서는 다양한 경제 정보에 내포된 함의를 짚을 줄 알아야 한다. 이 책은 날카로운 분석으로 많은 투자자의 신뢰를 받는 이코노미스트 빈센트가 인플레이션 시대에 꼭 알아두어야 할 글로벌 경제지표를 엄선한 책이다. 저자가 10여 년간 학계와 필드에서 축적해온 특급 인사이트를 고스란히 담아냈다. 미국, 중국, 유럽, 한국의 주요 경제지표를 소비, 기업 투자, 정부 지출, 수입, 수출의 측면에서 톺아보며 각국의 경제가 어떤 위치에 있고 앞으로 어떤 흐름으로 나아갈지를 예측한다. 또 소프트 데이터와 하드 데이터라는 이 책만의 독특한 경제지표 독해법으로 정보의 바다에서 성공의 기회를 건져 올리는 방법을 알려준다. |
| citi economic surprise index: Global Trends 2040 National Intelligence Council, 2021-03 The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come. -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading. |
| citi economic surprise index: The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, 2011-05-01 The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States. It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government.News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com. |
| citi economic surprise index: Big Players Out of Synch Carolina Osorio Buitron, Mr.Esteban Vesperoni, 2015-09-30 Given the prospects of asynchronous monetary conditions in the United States and the euro area, this paper analyzes spillovers among these two economies, as well as the implications of asynchronicity for spillovers to other advanced economies and emerging markets. Through a structural vector autoregression analysis, country-specific shocks to economic activity and monetary conditions since the early 1990s are identified, and are used to draw implications about spillovers. The empirical findings suggest that real and monetary conditions in the United States and the euro area have oftentimes been asynchronous. The results also point to significant spillovers among them, in particular since early 2014—with spillovers from the euro area to the United States being particularly large. Against the backdrop of asynchronous conditions in these two economies, spillovers from real and money shocks to emerging markets and non-systemic advanced economies could be dampened. |
| citi economic surprise index: Eco2 Cities Hiroaki Suzuki, Arish Dastur, Sebastian Moffatt, Nanae Yabuki, Hinako Maruyama, 2010-05-07 This book is a point of departure for cities that would like to reap the many benefits of ecological and economic sustainability. It provides an analytical and operational framework that offers strategic guidance to cities on sustainable and integrated urban development. |
| citi economic surprise index: Why Does Bad News Increase Volatility and Decrease Leverage? Ms.Ana Fostel, Mr.John Geanakoplos, 2010-09-01 The literature on leverage until now shows how an increase in volatility reduces leverage. However, in order to explain pro-cyclical leverage it assumes that bad news increases volatility. This paper suggests a reason why bad news is more often than not associated with higher future volatility. We show that, in a model with endogenous leverage and heterogeneous beliefs, agents have the incentive to invest mostly in technologies that become volatile in bad times. Together with the old literature this explains pro-cyclical leverage. The result also gives rationale to the pattern of volatility smiles observed in the stock options since 1987. Finally, the paper presents for the first time a dynamic model in which an asset is endogenously traded simultaneously at different margin requirements in equilibrium. |
| citi economic surprise index: World Economic Outlook, October 2013 International Monetary Fund. Research Dept., 2013-10-08 Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis. |
| citi economic surprise index: Global Financial Stability Report, April 2013 International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department, 2013-04-17 The Global Financial Stability Report examines current risks facing the global financial system and policy actions that may mitigate these. It analyzes the key challenges facing financial and nonfinancial firms as they continue to repair their balance sheets. Chapter 2 takes a closer look at whether sovereign credit default swaps markets are good indicators of sovereign credit risk. Chapter 3 examines unconventional monetary policy in some depth, including the policies pursued by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the U.S. Federal Reserve. |
| citi economic surprise index: Command Of The Air General Giulio Douhet, 2014-08-15 In the pantheon of air power spokesmen, Giulio Douhet holds center stage. His writings, more often cited than perhaps actually read, appear as excerpts and aphorisms in the writings of numerous other air power spokesmen, advocates-and critics. Though a highly controversial figure, the very controversy that surrounds him offers to us a testimonial of the value and depth of his work, and the need for airmen today to become familiar with his thought. The progressive development of air power to the point where, today, it is more correct to refer to aerospace power has not outdated the notions of Douhet in the slightest In fact, in many ways, the kinds of technological capabilities that we enjoy as a global air power provider attest to the breadth of his vision. Douhet, together with Hugh “Boom” Trenchard of Great Britain and William “Billy” Mitchell of the United States, is justly recognized as one of the three great spokesmen of the early air power era. This reprint is offered in the spirit of continuing the dialogue that Douhet himself so perceptively began with the first edition of this book, published in 1921. Readers may well find much that they disagree with in this book, but also much that is of enduring value. The vital necessity of Douhet’s central vision-that command of the air is all important in modern warfare-has been proven throughout the history of wars in this century, from the fighting over the Somme to the air war over Kuwait and Iraq. |
| citi economic surprise index: New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time Troy Matheson, 2011-02-01 We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the indicators generally produce good GDP growth forecasts relative to a range of time series models. |
| citi economic surprise index: Sweden International Monetary Fund. European Dept., 2024-03-11 Sweden: Selected Issues |
| citi economic surprise index: Bull by the Horns Sheila Bair, 2013-09-10 The former FDIC Chairwoman, and one of the first people to acknowledge the full risk of subprime loans, offers a unique perspective on the greatest crisis the U.S. has faced since the Great Depression. |
| citi economic surprise index: Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance Arvind Subramanian, 2011 By most accounts, China has quickly grown into the second largest economy in the world. In this controversial new book, Subramanian argues that China has already become the most economically dominant country in the world in terms of wealth, trade and finance. Its dominance and eclipsing of US global economic power is more imminent, more broad-based and larger in magnitude than anyone has anticipated. Subramanian compares the economic dominance of China with that of the two previous economic superpowers--the United States and the United Kingdom--and highlights similarities and differences. One corollary is that the fundamentals are strong for the Chinese currency to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency. The final chapter forecasts how the international economic system is likely to evolve as a result of Chinese dominance. |
| citi economic surprise index: The New Financial Order Robert J. Shiller, 2009-02-09 In his best-selling Irrational Exuberance, Robert Shiller cautioned that society's obsession with the stock market was fueling the volatility that has since made a roller coaster of the financial system. Less noted was Shiller's admonition that our infatuation with the stock market distracts us from more durable economic prospects. These lie in the hidden potential of real assets, such as income from our livelihoods and homes. But these ''ordinary riches,'' so fundamental to our well-being, are increasingly exposed to the pervasive risks of a rapidly changing global economy. This compelling and important new book presents a fresh vision for hedging risk and securing our economic future. Shiller describes six fundamental ideas for using modern information technology and advanced financial theory to temper basic risks that have been ignored by risk management institutions--risks to the value of our jobs and our homes, to the vitality of our communities, and to the very stability of national economies. Informed by a comprehensive risk information database, this new financial order would include global markets for trading risks and exploiting myriad new financial opportunities, from inequality insurance to intergenerational social security. Just as developments in insuring risks to life, health, and catastrophe have given us a quality of life unimaginable a century ago, so Shiller's plan for securing crucial assets promises to substantially enrich our condition. Once again providing an enormous service, Shiller gives us a powerful means to convert our ordinary riches into a level of economic security, equity, and growth never before seen. And once again, what Robert Shiller says should be read and heeded by anyone with a stake in the economy. |
| citi economic surprise index: Who Drains Bond Market Liquidity in an Emerging Market? Ricardo Hoyos, Yang Liu, Hui Miao, Christian Saborowski, 2020-07-24 This paper examines the drivers of liquidity shortages in the Mexican government bond market. We use unique transaction- and quote level data with information on end-investors to construct an index of bond market liquidity. We find that liquidity remained stable in recent years, although temporary shortages arose amid domestic and global market stress. The analysis suggests that the largest liquidity squeezes have tended to be driven by foreign investors, whose sell-offs were especially pronounced in less liquid market segments. While domestic banks often absorbed part of the shock, other domestic investors--with the notable inclusion of domestic pension and mutual funds--appeared to take a more opportunistic stance depending on the nature of the shock. |
| citi economic surprise index: Informality Guillermo Perry, 2007 Analyzes informality in Latin America, exploring root causes and reasons for and implications of its growth. This book uses two distinct but complementary lenses. It concludes that reducing informality levels and overcoming the culture of informality will require actions to increase aggregate productivity in the economy. |
| citi economic surprise index: The Global Innovation Index 2014 Cornell University, INSEAD , World Intellectual Property Organization, Soumitra Dutta, Bruno Lanvin, Sacha Wunsch-Vincent, 2014 The Global Innovation Index ranks the innovation performance of 143 countries and economies around the world, based on 81 indicators. This edition explores the role of the individuals and teams behind the innovation process. It sheds light on different aspects of human capital required to achieve innovation, including skilled labor; the intersection of human, financial and technological capital; talent retention; and the mobilization of highly educated people. |
| citi economic surprise index: Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization Augusto de la Torre, Sergio Schmukler, 2006-10-20 Back in the early 1990s, economists and policy makers had high expectations about the prospects for domestic capital market development in emerging economies, particularly in Latin America. Unfortunately, they are now faced with disheartening results. Stock and bond markets remain illiquid and segmented. Debt is concentrated at the short end of the maturity spectrum and denominated in foreign currency, exposing countries to maturity and currency risk. Capital markets in Latin America look particularly underdeveloped when considering the many efforts undertaken to improve the macroeconomic environment and to reform the institutions believed to foster capital market development. The disappointing performance has made conventional policy recommendations questionable, at best. 'Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization' analyzes where we stand and where we are heading on capital market development. First, it takes stock of the state and evolution of Latin American capital markets and related reforms over time and relative to other countries. Second, it analyzes the factors related to the development of capital markets, with particular interest on measuring the impact of reforms. And third, in light of this analysis, it discusses the prospects for capital market development in Latin America and emerging economies and the implications for the reform agenda. |
| citi economic surprise index: Economic Growth in the 1990s World Bank, 2005 This report was prepared by a team led by Roberto Zagha, under the general direction of Gobind Nankani. |
| citi economic surprise index: India and the Knowledge Economy Carl J. Dahlman, Anuja Utz, 2005-01-01 In the global knowledge economy of the twenty-first century, India's development policy challenges will require it to use knowledge more effectively to raise the productivity of agriculture, industry, and services and reduce poverty. India has made tremendous strides in its economic and social development in the past two decades. Its impressive growth in recent years-8.2 percent in 2003-can be attributed to the far-reaching reforms embarked on in 1991 and to opening the economy to global competition. In addition, India can count on a number of strengths as it strives to transform itself into a knowledge-based economy-availability of skilled human capital, a democratic system, widespread use of English, macroeconomic stability, a dynamic private sector, institutions of a free market economy; a local market that is one of the largest in the world; a well-developed financial sector; and a broad and diversified science and technology infrastructure, and global niches in IT. But India can do more-much more-to leverage its strengths and grasp today's opportunities. India and the Knowledge Economy assesses India's progress in becoming a knowledge economy and suggests actions to strengthen the economic and institutional regime, develop educated and skilled workers, create an efficient innovation system, and build a dynamic information infrastructure. It highlights that to get the greatest benefits from the knowledge revolution, India will need to press on with the economic reform agenda that it put into motion a decade ago and continue to implement the various policy and institutional changes needed to accelerate growth. In so doing, it will be able to improve its international competitivenessand join the ranks of countries that are making a successful transition to the knowledge economy. |
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