Advertisement
| climate risk scenario analysis: Managing Climate Risk in the U.S. Financial System Leonardo Martinez-Diaz, Jesse M. Keenan, 2020-09-09 This publication serves as a roadmap for exploring and managing climate risk in the U.S. financial system. It is the first major climate publication by a U.S. financial regulator. The central message is that U.S. financial regulators must recognize that climate change poses serious emerging risks to the U.S. financial system, and they should move urgently and decisively to measure, understand, and address these risks. Achieving this goal calls for strengthening regulators’ capabilities, expertise, and data and tools to better monitor, analyze, and quantify climate risks. It calls for working closely with the private sector to ensure that financial institutions and market participants do the same. And it calls for policy and regulatory choices that are flexible, open-ended, and adaptable to new information about climate change and its risks, based on close and iterative dialogue with the private sector. At the same time, the financial community should not simply be reactive—it should provide solutions. Regulators should recognize that the financial system can itself be a catalyst for investments that accelerate economic resilience and the transition to a net-zero emissions economy. Financial innovations, in the form of new financial products, services, and technologies, can help the U.S. economy better manage climate risk and help channel more capital into technologies essential for the transition. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5247742 |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy Haris Doukas, Alexandros Flamos, Jenny Lieu, 2018-12-10 This open access book analyzes and seeks to consolidate the use of robust quantitative tools and qualitative methods for the design and assessment of energy and climate policies. In particular, it examines energy and climate policy performance and associated risks, as well as public acceptance and portfolio analysis in climate policy, and presents methods for evaluating the costs and benefits of flexible policy implementation as well as new framings for business and market actors. In turn, it discusses the development of alternative policy pathways and the identification of optimal switching points, drawing on concrete examples to do so. Lastly, it discusses climate change mitigation policies’ implications for the agricultural, food, building, transportation, service and manufacturing sectors. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Water Ian Prosser, 2011 The book covers the status of Australia.s water resources and their future prospects, the many values we hold for water, and the potential for using water more effectively to meet the growing demands of cities, farmers, industries, and the environment. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Review of the Draft Fourth National Climate Assessment National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Environmental Change and Society, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee to Review the Draft Fourth National Climate Assessment, 2018-06-18 Climate change poses many challenges that affect society and the natural world. With these challenges, however, come opportunities to respond. By taking steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change, the risks to society and the impacts of continued climate change can be lessened. The National Climate Assessment, coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is a mandated report intended to inform response decisions. Required to be developed every four years, these reports provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date evaluation of climate change impacts available for the United States, making them a unique and important climate change document. The draft Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report reviewed here addresses a wide range of topics of high importance to the United States and society more broadly, extending from human health and community well-being, to the built environment, to businesses and economies, to ecosystems and natural resources. This report evaluates the draft NCA4 to determine if it meets the requirements of the federal mandate, whether it provides accurate information grounded in the scientific literature, and whether it effectively communicates climate science, impacts, and responses for general audiences including the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design Patrick A. Ray, Casey M. Brown, 2015-08-20 Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) Mendoza, Guillermo, Jeuken, Ad, Matthews, John H., Stakhiv, Eugene, Kucharski, John, Gilroy, Kristin, 2018-12-31 |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2012-05-28 Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment Jana Sillmann, Sebastian Sippel, Simone Russo, 2019-11-20 Climate extremes often imply significant impacts on human and natural systems, and these extreme events are anticipated to be among the potentially most harmful consequences of a changing climate. However, while extreme event impacts are increasingly recognized, methodologies to address such impacts and the degree of our understanding and prediction capabilities vary widely among different sectors and disciplines. Moreover, traditional climate extreme indices and large-scale multi-model intercomparisons that are used for future projections of extreme events and associated impacts often fall short in capturing the full complexity of impact systems. Climate Extremes and Their Implications for Impact and Risk Assessment describes challenges, opportunities and methodologies for the analysis of the impacts of climate extremes across various sectors to support their impact and risk assessment. It thereby also facilitates cross-sectoral and cross-disciplinary discussions and exchange among climate and impact scientists. The sectors covered include agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, human health, transport, conflict, and more broadly covering the human-environment nexus. The book concludes with an outlook on the need for more transdisciplinary work and international collaboration between scientists and practitioners to address emergent risks and extreme events towards risk reduction and strengthened societal resilience. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Handbook of Climate Services Walter Leal Filho, Daniela Jacob, 2020-01-17 This book explores climate services, including projections, descriptive information, analyses, assessments, and an overview of current trends. Due to the pressures now being put on the world’s climate, it is vital to gather and share reliable climate observation and projection data, which may be tailored for use by different groups. In other words, it is essential to offer climate services. But despite the growth in the use of these services, there are very few specialist publications on this topic. This book addresses that need. Apart from presenting studies and the results of research projects, the book also offers an overview of the wide range of means available for providing and using climate services. In addition, it features case studies that provide illustrative and inspiring examples of how climate services can be optimally deployed. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Climate Change 2014 Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat, 2015 |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Resilient Urban Futures Zoé A. Hamstead, David M. Iwaniec, Timon McPhearson, Marta Berbés-Blázquez, Elizabeth M. Cook, Tischa A. Muñoz-Erickson, 2021-04-06 This open access book addresses the way in which urban and urbanizing regions profoundly impact and are impacted by climate change. The editors and authors show why cities must wage simultaneous battles to curb global climate change trends while adapting and transforming to address local climate impacts. This book addresses how cities develop anticipatory and long-range planning capacities for more resilient futures, earnest collaboration across disciplines, and radical reconfigurations of the power regimes that have institutionalized the disenfranchisement of minority groups. Although planning processes consider visions for the future, the editors highlight a more ambitious long-term positive visioning approach that accounts for unpredictability, system dynamics and equity in decision-making. This volume brings the science of urban transformation together with practices of professionals who govern and manage our social, ecological and technological systems to design processes by which cities may achieve resilient urban futures in the face of climate change. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Impact of Climate Risk on the Energy System Amy Myers Jaffe, Et Al, 2019-09-13 Climate change affects virtually every aspect of the U.S. energy system. As climatic effects such as rising seas and extreme weather continue to appear across many geographies, U.S. energy infrastructure is increasingly at risk. The U.S. Gulf Coast--which is home to 44 percent of total U.S. oil refining capacity and several major ports--is highly vulnerable to flooding events and dangerous ocean surges during severe storms and hurricanes. The link between water availability and energy and electricity production creates another layer of risk to U.S. energy security. Climate risk could manifest not only in physical damages, but also in financial market failures. Climate change-related challenges could impede energy firms' access to capital markets or private insurance markets. Already, climate-related risks have created severe financial problems at a handful of U.S. energy firms, forcing them to interrupt their sales of energy to consumers in particular locations. Over time, climatic disruptions to domestic energy supply could entail huge economic losses and potentially require sizable domestic military mobilizations. The United States is ill prepared for this national security challenge, and public debate about emergency preparedness is virtually nonexistent. To explore the challenges of climate risk to the U.S. energy system and national security, the Council on Foreign Relations organized a two-day workshop in New York, on March 18 and 19, 2019. The gathering of fifty participants included current and former state and federal government officials and regulators, entrepreneurs, scientists, investors, financial- and corporate-sector leaders, credit agencies, insurers, nongovernmental organizations, and energy policy experts. During their deliberations, workshop participants explored how climate-related risks to U.S. energy infrastructure, financial markets, and national security could be measured, managed, and mitigated. Impact of Climate Risk on the Energy System summarizes the insights from this workshop and includes contributions from seven expert authors delving into related topics. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis Matthew E. Kahn, Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes, Ryan N. C. Ng, M. Hashem Pesaran, Mr.Mehdi Raissi, Jui-Chung Yang, 2019-10-11 We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Climate Impacts on Energy Systems Jane O. Ebinger, 2011 While the energy sector is a primary target of efforts to arrest and reverse the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and lower the carbon footprint of development, it is also expected to be increasingly affected by unavoidable climate consequences from the damage already induced in the biosphere. Energy services and resources, as well as seasonal demand, will be increasingly affected by changing trends, increasing variability, greater extremes and large inter-annual variations in climate parameters in some regions. All evidence suggests that adaptation is not an optional add-on but an essential reckoning on par with other business risks. Existing energy infrastructure, new infrastructure and future planning need to consider emerging climate conditions and impacts on design, construction, operation, and maintenance. Integrated risk-based planning processes will be critical to address the climate change impacts and harmonize actions within and across sectors. Also, awareness, knowledge, and capacity impede mainstreaming of climate adaptation into the energy sector. However, the formal knowledge base is still nascent?information needs are complex and to a certain extent regionally and sector specific. This report provides an up-to-date compendium of what is known about weather variability and projected climate trends and their impacts on energy service provision and demand. It discusses emerging practices and tools for managing these impacts and integrating climate considerations into planning processes and operational practices in an environment of uncertainty. It focuses on energy sector adaptation, rather than mitigation which is not discussed in this report. This report draws largely on available scientific and peer-reviewed literature in the public domain and takes the perspective of the developing world to the extent possible. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Paper Manufacturing & Printing United States. Business and Defense Services Administration, 1969 |
| climate risk scenario analysis: World Scientific Encyclopedia Of Climate Change: Case Studies Of Climate Risk, Action, And Opportunity (In 3 Volumes) Jan W Dash, 2021-03-18 The Climate Change Encyclopedia responds to the outstanding risk, survival, and ethical issue of our time, requiring action and providing opportunity. Primary-source expert authors write in a unique case-study structure that enables the Encyclopedia to be approachable, informational, and motivational for the public. The key focus areas are Climate Change and Finance, Economics, and Policy, with many other related climate categories included. The over 100 case studies provide realistic and interesting views of climate change, based on authors' published papers, reports, and books, plus climate-related activities of organizations, and selected topics. This inspiring work can enhance optimism and courage to act urgently and persistently on climate change, with foresight for a livable future.For more information on the list of contributors, please refer to https://www.worldscientific.com/page/encyclopedia-of-climate-change.Related Link(s) |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Ocean Studies Board, Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources, Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on Developing a Research Agenda for Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration, 2019-04-08 To achieve goals for climate and economic growth, negative emissions technologies (NETs) that remove and sequester carbon dioxide from the air will need to play a significant role in mitigating climate change. Unlike carbon capture and storage technologies that remove carbon dioxide emissions directly from large point sources such as coal power plants, NETs remove carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere or enhance natural carbon sinks. Storing the carbon dioxide from NETs has the same impact on the atmosphere and climate as simultaneously preventing an equal amount of carbon dioxide from being emitted. Recent analyses found that deploying NETs may be less expensive and less disruptive than reducing some emissions, such as a substantial portion of agricultural and land-use emissions and some transportation emissions. In 2015, the National Academies published Climate Intervention: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration, which described and initially assessed NETs and sequestration technologies. This report acknowledged the relative paucity of research on NETs and recommended development of a research agenda that covers all aspects of NETs from fundamental science to full-scale deployment. To address this need, Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration: A Research Agenda assesses the benefits, risks, and sustainable scale potential for NETs and sequestration. This report also defines the essential components of a research and development program, including its estimated costs and potential impact. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Climate and Social Stress National Research Council, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, Board on Environmental Change and Society, Committee on Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Social and Political Stresses, 2013-02-14 Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events-slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Financial Regulation, Climate Change, and the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy: A Survey of the Issues Mr. Dimitri G Demekas, Pierpaolo Grippa, 2021-12-17 There are demands on central banks and financial regulators to take on new responsibilities for supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy. Regulators can indeed facilitate the reorientation of financial flows necessary for the transition. But their powers should not be overestimated. Their diagnostic and policy toolkits are still in their infancy. They cannot (and should not) expand their mandate unilaterally. Taking on these new responsibilities can also have potential pitfalls and unintended consequences. Ultimately, financial regulators cannot deliver a low-carbon economy by themselves and should not risk being caught again in the role of ‘the only game in town.’ |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Economic Analysis of Climate-Proofing Investment Projects Asian Development Bank, 2015-09-01 Climate change represents an increasing threat to the continued development of the people, preservation of ecosystems, and economic growth of Asia and the Pacific. Mainstreaming climate risk management in all aspects of development is thus key to an effective transition to climate-resilient development pathways. ADB's climate risk management framework aims to reduce risks resulting from climate change to investment projects in Asia and the Pacific. A key step in this framework is the technical and economic valuation of climate-proofing measures. This report describes the conduct of the cost-benefit analysis of climate proofing investment projects. An important message is that the presence of uncertainty about climate change does not invalidate the conduct of the economic analysis of investment projects, nor does it require a new type of economic analysis. However, the presence of uncertainty does require a different type of decision-making process in which technical and economic expertise combine to present decision makers with the best possible information on the economic efficiency of alternative designs of investment projects. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Believing Cassandra Alan AtKisson, 2011 First Published in 2010. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Regulating Wall Street New York University Stern School of Business, 2010-10-28 Experts from NYU Stern School of Business analyze new financial regulations and what they mean for the economy The NYU Stern School of Business is one of the top business schools in the world thanks to the leading academics, researchers, and provocative thinkers who call it home. In Regulating Wall Street: The New Architecture of Global Finance, an impressive group of the Stern school’s top authorities on finance combine their expertise in capital markets, risk management, banking, and derivatives to assess the strengths and weaknesses of new regulations in response to the recent global financial crisis. Summarizes key issues that regulatory reform should address Evaluates the key components of regulatory reform Provides analysis of how the reforms will affect financial firms and markets, as well as the real economy The U.S. Congress is on track to complete the most significant changes in financial regulation since the 1930s. Regulating Wall Street: The New Architecture of Global Finance discusses the impact these news laws will have on the U.S. and global financial architecture. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2022-04-30 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Using Scenarios Thomas J. Chermack, 2022-02-01 This is the first book to offer detailed guidance on how scenarios can be used to help organizations make their toughest decisions in a world of ever-escalating crisis and opportunity. To reap the full benefits of scenarios, you have to be able to apply them in the real world. This groundbreaking book goes beyond the theoretical to clearly explain different ways scenarios can be used in business decision-making—from strategic planning and financial modeling to crisis response. Connecting scenarios to strategy and action can have many benefits, including the ability to react quickly, anticipate major changes in the environment, and identify major opportunities. Thomas Chermack, a top expert on scenario planning, offers seven specific ways organizations can use scenarios and provides a wide variety of examples, along with proven processes, exercises, and workshops that have been used successfully in organizations across industries and countries for more than fifteen years. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Scenario Planning in Organizations Thomas J. Chermack, 2011-02-14 Scenario planning helps organization leaders, executives and decision-makers envision and develop strategies for multiple possible futures instead of just one. It enables organizations to become resilient and agile, carefully calibrating their responses and adapting quickly to new circumstances in a fast-changing environment. This book is the most comprehensive treatment to date of the scenario planning process. Unlike existing books it offers a thorough discussion of the evolution and theoretical foundations of scenario planning, examining its connections to learning theory, decision-making theory, mental model theory and more. Chermack emphasizes that scenario planning is far more than a simple set of steps to follow, as so many other practice-focused books do—he addresses the subtleties and complexities of planning. And, unique among scenario planning books, he deals not just with developing different scenarios but also with applying scenarios once they have been constructed, and assessing the impact of the scenario project. Using a case study based on a real scenario project Chermack lays out a comprehensive five phase scenario planning system—project preparation, scenario exploration, scenario development, scenario implementation and project assessment. Each chapter describes specific techniques for gathering and analyzing relevant data with a particular emphasis on the use of workshops to encourage dialogue. He offers a scenario project worksheet to help readers structure and manage scenario projects as well as avoid common pitfalls, and a discussion, based in recent neurological findings, of how scenario planning helps people to overcome barriers to creative thinking. “This book is about action and performance. Compelling and thoroughly researched, it offers every business executive a playbook for including uncertainty in the organizational change process and driving competitive advantage”. -- Tim Reynolds, Vice President, Talent and Organization Effectiveness, Whirlpool Corporation |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Investing in Climate, Investing in Growth OECD, 2017-05-23 This report provides an assessment of how governments can generate inclusive economic growth in the short term, while making progress towards climate goals to secure sustainable long-term growth. It describes the development pathways required to meet the Paris Agreement objectives. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: World Energy Outlook 2017 Agence internationale de l'énergie, International Energy Agency, 2018-01-19 The global energy scene is in a state of flux. Large-scale shifts include: the rapid deployment and steep declines in the costs of major renewable energy technologies; the growing importance of electricity in energy use across the globe; profound changes in China's economy and energy policy, moving consumption away from coal; and the continued surge in shale gas and tight oil production in the United States. These changes provide the backdrop for the World Energy Outlook-2017, which includes a full update of energy demand and supply projections to 2040 based on different scenarios. The projections are accompanied by detailed analyses of their impact on energy industries and investment, as well as implications for energy security and the environment. The report this year includes a focus on China, which examines how China's choices could reshape the global outlook for all fuels and technologies. A second focus, on natural gas, explores how the rise of shale gas and LNG are changing the global gas market as well as the opportunities and risks for gas in the transition to a cleaner energy system. Finally, the WEO-2017 introduces a major new scenario - the Sustainable Development Scenario - that outlines an integrated approach to achieving internationally agreed objectives on climate change, air quality and universal access to modern energy. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Monitoring Climate Change Impacts National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on Indicators for Understanding Global Climate Change, 2010-11-27 The stresses associated with climate change are expected to be felt keenly as human population grows to a projected 9 billion by the middle of this century, increasing the demand for resources and supporting infrastructure. Therefore, information to assess vulnerabilities to climate change is needed to support policies and investments designed to increase resilience in human and Earth systems. There are currently many observing systems that capture elements of how climate is changing, for example, direct measurements of atmospheric and ocean temperature. Although those measurements are essential for understanding the scale and nature of climate change, they do not necessarily provide information about the impacts of climate change on humans that are especially relevant for political and economic planning and decision making. Monitoring Climate Change Impacts tackles the challenge of developing an illustrative suite of indicators, measurements (and the locations around the globe where the measurements can be applied), and metrics that are important for understanding global climate change and providing insight into environmental sustainability. Eight panels provided input on: cryosphere, land-surface and terrestrial ecosystems, hydrology and water resources, atmosphere, human health and other dimensions, oceans (both physical and biological/chemical), and natural disasters. The book also provides an illustrative set of metrics that are likely to be affected by climate change over the next 20-25 years and, when taken together, can potentially give advance warning of climate-related changes to the human and environment systems. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Canada’s Top Climate Change Risks The Expert Panel on Climate Change Risks and Adaptation Potential, 2019-07-04 Canada’s Top Climate Change Risks identifies the top risk areas based on the extent and likelihood of the potential damage, and rates the risk areas according to society’s ability to adapt and reduce negative outcomes. These 12 major areas of risk are: agriculture and food, coastal communities, ecosystems, fisheries, forestry, geopolitical dynamics, governance and capacity, human health and wellness, Indigenous ways of life, northern communities, physical infrastructure, and water. The report describes an approach to inform federal risk prioritization and adaptation responses. The Panel outlines a multi-layered method of prioritizing adaptation measures based on an understanding of the risk, adaptation potential, and federal roles and responsibilities. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Loss and Damage from Climate Change Reinhard Mechler, Laurens M. Bouwer, Thomas Schinko, Swenja Surminski, JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer, 2018-11-28 This book provides an authoritative insight on the Loss and Damage discourse by highlighting state-of-the-art research and policy linked to this discourse and articulating its multiple concepts, principles and methods. Written by leading researchers and practitioners, it identifies practical and evidence-based policy options to inform the discourse and climate negotiations. With climate-related risks on the rise and impacts being felt around the globe has come the recognition that climate mitigation and adaptation may not be enough to manage the effects from anthropogenic climate change. This recognition led to the creation of the Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage in 2013, a climate policy mechanism dedicated to dealing with climate-related effects in highly vulnerable countries that face severe constraints and limits to adaptation. Endorsed in 2015 by the Paris Agreement and effectively considered a third pillar of international climate policy, debate and research on Loss and Damage continues to gain enormous traction. Yet, concepts, methods and tools as well as directions for policy and implementation have remained contested and vague. Suitable for researchers, policy-advisors, practitioners and the interested public, the book furthermore: • discusses the political, legal, economic and institutional dimensions of the issue• highlights normative questions central to the discourse • provides a focus on climate risks and climate risk management. • presents salient case studies from around the world. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk Tobias Adrian, Federico Grinberg, Nellie Liang, Sheheryar Malik, 2018-08-02 Using panel quantile regressions for 11 advanced and 10 emerging market economies, we show that the conditional distribution of GDP growth depends on financial conditions, with growth-at-risk (GaR)—defined as growth at the lower 5th percentile—more responsive than the median or upper percentiles. In addition, the term structure of GaR features an intertemporal tradeoff: GaR is higher in the short run; but lower in the medium run when initial financial conditions are loose relative to typical levels, and the tradeoff is amplified by a credit boom. This shift in the growth distribution generally is not incorporated when solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with macrofinancial linkages, which suggests downside risks to GDP growth are systematically underestimated. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: The Promise of Adolescence National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Health and Medicine Division, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, Board on Children, Youth, and Families, Committee on the Neurobiological and Socio-behavioral Science of Adolescent Development and Its Applications, 2019-07-26 Adolescenceâ€beginning with the onset of puberty and ending in the mid-20sâ€is a critical period of development during which key areas of the brain mature and develop. These changes in brain structure, function, and connectivity mark adolescence as a period of opportunity to discover new vistas, to form relationships with peers and adults, and to explore one's developing identity. It is also a period of resilience that can ameliorate childhood setbacks and set the stage for a thriving trajectory over the life course. Because adolescents comprise nearly one-fourth of the entire U.S. population, the nation needs policies and practices that will better leverage these developmental opportunities to harness the promise of adolescenceâ€rather than focusing myopically on containing its risks. This report examines the neurobiological and socio-behavioral science of adolescent development and outlines how this knowledge can be applied, both to promote adolescent well-being, resilience, and development, and to rectify structural barriers and inequalities in opportunity, enabling all adolescents to flourish. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Climate Risk in Africa Declan Conway, Katharine Vincent, 2021-01-19 This open access book highlights the complexities around making adaptation decisions and building resilience in the face of climate risk. It is based on experiences in sub-Saharan Africa through the Future Climate For Africa (FCFA) applied research programme. It begins by dealing with underlying principles and structures designed to facilitate effective engagement about climate risk, including the robustness of information and the construction of knowledge through co-production. Chapters then move on to explore examples of using climate information to inform adaptation and resilience through early warning, river basin development, urban planning and rural livelihoods based in a variety of contexts. These insights inform new ways to promote action in policy and praxis through the blending of knowledge from multiple disciplines, including climate science that provides understanding of future climate risk and the social science of response through adaptation. The book will be of interest to advanced undergraduate students and postgraduate students, researchers, policy makers and practitioners in geography, environment, international development and related disciplines. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Scenario Planning for Climate Change Nardia Haigh, 2019 Climate change, and the resultant impact on resource management and societal wellbeing, is one of the greatest challenges facing businesses and their long-term performance. Uncertainty about access to resources, unanticipated weather events, rapidly changing market conditions and potential social unrest is felt across all business and industry sectors. This book sets out an engaging step-by-step scenario-planning method that executives, Board members, managers and consultants can follow to develop a long-term strategy for climate change tailored for their business. Most climate change strategy books discuss climate mitigation only, focusing on how companies engage with carbon policy, new technologies, markets and other stakeholders about reducing carbon emissions. This book explores these themes but also looks at strategizing for climate change adaptation. Adaptation is equally important, especially given that companies cannot negotiate with nature. There is a need to interpret climate science for business in a way that acknowledges the realities of climate change and identifies a way forwards in responding to this uncertain future. with nature. There is a need to interpret climate science for business in a way that acknowledges the realities of climate change and identifies a way forwards in responding to this uncertain future. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Ground for Choices Wetenschappelijke Raad voor het Regeringsbeleid (Netherlands), 1992 WRR analyse EU landelijk gebied |
| climate risk scenario analysis: What If We Stopped Pretending? Jonathan Franzen, 2021-01-21 The climate change is coming. To prepare for it, we need to admit that we can’t prevent it. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Approaches to Climate Risk Analysis in FSAPs Mr. Tobias Adrian, Pierpaolo Grippa, Mr. Marco Gross, Mr. V. Haksar, Mr. Ivo Krznar, Caterina Lepore, Mr. Fabian Lipinsky, Ms. Hiroko Oura, Sujan Lamichhane, Mr. Apostolos Panagiotopoulos, 2022-07-14 Climate change presents risks and opportunities for the real economies and financial sectors of the IMF’s global membership. Understanding the risks is key to prepare for a successful transition to a lower carbon global economy. This will unlock the many opportunities for technological progress and structural transformation along the path that financial sectors around the world will need to adapt to and support. This note lays out the IMF staff’s emerging approach to assessing the impact of climate change on banking sector stability risks conducted in the context of the IMF’s Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). The note starts with a primer on climate change risk, both transition and physical, explaining some of the technical terms and concepts used in this work. It explains the approach to standard risk analysis in FSAPs, and how this would be modified in broad terms to incorporate climate risk. The note then discusses different approaches to the analysis of physical versus transition risk, their implications for the macro-economy and across sectors in the real economy and different geographies, and how all these effects map into the banking sector. The note illustrates concepts with examples of applications from recent FSAPs and takes note of the many challenges confronting this work, including data gaps and uncertainty regarding climate projections and long simulation horizons in conducting the climate risk analysis. As such the note is focused on methods that IMF staff are deploying to raise awareness of the risks, and adaptation needs, including need for banks to develop tools to manage climate risks and for financial sector supervisory authorities to adequately supervise this risk. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change Ian Burton, Elizabeth Malone, Saleemul Huq, 2004-11-15 Adaptation is a process by which individuals, communities and countries seek to cope with the consequences of climate change. The process of adaptation is not new; the idea of incorporating future climate risk into policy-making is. While our understanding of climate change and its potential impacts has become clearer, the availability of practical guidance on adaptation has not kept pace. The development of the Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) is intended to help provide the rapidly evolving process of adaptation policy-making with a much-needed roadmap. Ultimately, the purpose of the APF is to support adaptation processes to protect - and enhance - human well-being in the face of climate change. This volume will be invaluable for everyone working on climate change adaptation and policy-making. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Climate Risk - Technical Bulletin Sustainability Accounting Standards Board, 2017-01-19 SASB's Technical Bulletin on Climate Risk is designed to help investors better understand, measure and manage their exposure to climate-related risk. The research finds that climate change affects 72 out of 79 industries (93 percent of the capital markets, or $27.5 trillion) but manifests differently from one industry to the next. Due to the ubiquity of climate risk, investors can't simply diversify away from it; instead they must focus on managing it-and on encouraging portfolio companies to manage it-in all its forms. The foreword to the guide, authored by former Secretaries of the Treasury Robert Rubin and Hank Paulson, emphasizes the need for better disclosure. If investors are to effectively evaluate climate risk, they need a far better understanding of granular, industry-specific climate impacts, with industry-specific standards by which to evaluate corporate performance on these issues. By adopting a set of industry-based market standards for disclosure, especially in SEC filings, investors will be able to accurately compare and contrast companies, they write. This latest SASB bulletin is a good next step toward this goal, and offers for the first time a comprehensive guide to understand and measure the unique climate impacts across all industries of the economy. |
| climate risk scenario analysis: Managing Climate Risks and Impacts Through Due Diligence for Responsible Business Conduct A Tool for Institutional Investors OECD, 2023-10-03 This report explores how institutional investors can apply risk-based due diligence as recommended by the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises on Responsible Business Conduct and help them prevent and mitigate adverse climate impacts associated with their investee companies on society and the environment. |
Climate - World Meteorological Organization
May 27, 2025 · The WMO Climate Services Information System (CSIS) is the principal mechanism through …
Climate change - World Meteorological Organization
May 28, 2025 · Climate change is the term used to describe changes in the state of the climate that can be …
State of the Climate 2024 Update for COP29 - wmo.int
The WMO State of the Climate 2024 Update once again issues a Red Alert at the sheer pace of climate change in …
2024 State of Climate Services - wmo.int
The State of Climate Services report says that in 2024, one third of National Meteorological and Hydrological …
Climate change impacts grip globe in 2024 - wmo.int
Climate change impacts gripped the globe in 2024, with cascading impacts from mountain peaks to ocean …
Climate - World Meteorological Organization
May 27, 2025 · The WMO Climate Services Information System (CSIS) is the principal mechanism through which information about climate – past, present and future – is routinely …
Climate change - World Meteorological Organization
May 28, 2025 · Climate change is the term used to describe changes in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the average and/or the variability of its properties and that …
State of the Climate 2024 Update for COP29 - wmo.int
The WMO State of the Climate 2024 Update once again issues a Red Alert at the sheer pace of climate change in a single generation, turbo-charged by ever-increasing greenhouse gas …
2024 State of Climate Services - wmo.int
The State of Climate Services report says that in 2024, one third of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) provide climate services at an ‘essential’ level, and nearly one …
Climate change impacts grip globe in 2024 - wmo.int
Climate change impacts gripped the globe in 2024, with cascading impacts from mountain peaks to ocean depths and on communities, economies and the environment. Canva The year 2024 …
WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029)
May 28, 2025 · The WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029) projects that global temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, …
State of the Climate in Africa 2024 - wmo.int
May 12, 2025 · The Key Climate Indicators dashboard is a companion to the State of the Climate in Africa reports. State of the Climate in Africa 2024: Figures Figures as annexes to the State …
State of the Global Climate 2024 - public.wmo.int
Supplement: State of Climate Services 2024. Supplement: Significant Weather & Climate Events 2024. The clear signs of human-induced climate change reached new heights in 2024, which …
Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)
The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) is co-sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of the United …
About Essential Climate Variables - gcos.wmo.int
GCOS Climate monitoring principles. The GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles are intended to provide guidance to those involved in the design, development, deployment, and management …
