Advertisement
| climate change scenario analysis: Scenario Planning for Climate Change Nardia Haigh, 2019 Climate change, and the resultant impact on resource management and societal wellbeing, is one of the greatest challenges facing businesses and their long-term performance. Uncertainty about access to resources, unanticipated weather events, rapidly changing market conditions and potential social unrest is felt across all business and industry sectors. This book sets out an engaging step-by-step scenario-planning method that executives, Board members, managers and consultants can follow to develop a long-term strategy for climate change tailored for their business. Most climate change strategy books discuss climate mitigation only, focusing on how companies engage with carbon policy, new technologies, markets and other stakeholders about reducing carbon emissions. This book explores these themes but also looks at strategizing for climate change adaptation. Adaptation is equally important, especially given that companies cannot negotiate with nature. There is a need to interpret climate science for business in a way that acknowledges the realities of climate change and identifies a way forwards in responding to this uncertain future. with nature. There is a need to interpret climate science for business in a way that acknowledges the realities of climate change and identifies a way forwards in responding to this uncertain future. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Handbook of Climate Services Walter Leal Filho, Daniela Jacob, 2020-01-17 This book explores climate services, including projections, descriptive information, analyses, assessments, and an overview of current trends. Due to the pressures now being put on the world’s climate, it is vital to gather and share reliable climate observation and projection data, which may be tailored for use by different groups. In other words, it is essential to offer climate services. But despite the growth in the use of these services, there are very few specialist publications on this topic. This book addresses that need. Apart from presenting studies and the results of research projects, the book also offers an overview of the wide range of means available for providing and using climate services. In addition, it features case studies that provide illustrative and inspiring examples of how climate services can be optimally deployed. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Review of the Draft Fourth National Climate Assessment National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Environmental Change and Society, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee to Review the Draft Fourth National Climate Assessment, 2018-06-18 Climate change poses many challenges that affect society and the natural world. With these challenges, however, come opportunities to respond. By taking steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change, the risks to society and the impacts of continued climate change can be lessened. The National Climate Assessment, coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is a mandated report intended to inform response decisions. Required to be developed every four years, these reports provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date evaluation of climate change impacts available for the United States, making them a unique and important climate change document. The draft Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report reviewed here addresses a wide range of topics of high importance to the United States and society more broadly, extending from human health and community well-being, to the built environment, to businesses and economies, to ecosystems and natural resources. This report evaluates the draft NCA4 to determine if it meets the requirements of the federal mandate, whether it provides accurate information grounded in the scientific literature, and whether it effectively communicates climate science, impacts, and responses for general audiences including the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Managing Climate Risk in the U.S. Financial System Leonardo Martinez-Diaz, Jesse M. Keenan, 2020-09-09 This publication serves as a roadmap for exploring and managing climate risk in the U.S. financial system. It is the first major climate publication by a U.S. financial regulator. The central message is that U.S. financial regulators must recognize that climate change poses serious emerging risks to the U.S. financial system, and they should move urgently and decisively to measure, understand, and address these risks. Achieving this goal calls for strengthening regulators’ capabilities, expertise, and data and tools to better monitor, analyze, and quantify climate risks. It calls for working closely with the private sector to ensure that financial institutions and market participants do the same. And it calls for policy and regulatory choices that are flexible, open-ended, and adaptable to new information about climate change and its risks, based on close and iterative dialogue with the private sector. At the same time, the financial community should not simply be reactive—it should provide solutions. Regulators should recognize that the financial system can itself be a catalyst for investments that accelerate economic resilience and the transition to a net-zero emissions economy. Financial innovations, in the form of new financial products, services, and technologies, can help the U.S. economy better manage climate risk and help channel more capital into technologies essential for the transition. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5247742 |
| climate change scenario analysis: Environmental Futures J. Alcamo, 2008-10-10 As scientists and policymakers try to come to grips with problems such as climate change and risks to biodiversity, they turn more and more frequently to the method of scenario analysis to better understand the future of these problems. Over the last few years scenario analysis has become one of the key tools for bridging environmental science and policy. This is the first book to sum up the current practice of environmental scenario analysis and to propose directions for improving its quality and effectiveness. Chapters are written by an international group of distinguished scenario experts and provide an excellent starting basis for first-time scenario practitioners, as well as a collection of new ideas on improving scenario practice for experienced scenario analysts.* Comprehensive coverage and overview on environmental scenario analysis from a team of international experts* First book to address key contemporary issues involved with environmental scenario analysis* Gives guidelines for best practicesBenefits:* Excellent starting base for first-time scenario practitioners* Helps the reader to interpret scenarios and to place them into the correct context |
| climate change scenario analysis: Water Ian Prosser, 2011 The book covers the status of Australia.s water resources and their future prospects, the many values we hold for water, and the potential for using water more effectively to meet the growing demands of cities, farmers, industries, and the environment. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Climate Change Science National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Committee on the Science of Climate Change, 2001-06-28 The warming of the Earth has been the subject of intense debate and concern for many scientists, policy-makers, and citizens for at least the past decade. Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions, a new report by a committee of the National Research Council, characterizes the global warming trend over the last 100 years, and examines what may be in store for the 21st century and the extent to which warming may be attributable to human activity. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2012-05-28 Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Climate Change and Human Health Scenario in South and Southeast Asia Rais Akhtar, 2016-04-20 This book is the first to present a regional analysis of climate change and human health, focusing on geographically and socio-economically distinct countries of South and Southeast Asia. It has a major focus on India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Thailand, Nepal and Taiwan. Climate change is a significant and emerging threat to human health. lt represents a range of environmental hazards and will affect populations in both the developed and developing countries. In particular, it affects the regions where the current burden of climate-sensitive diseases are high, which is the case in South and Southeast Asian countries. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design Patrick A. Ray, Casey M. Brown, 2015-08-20 Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise. |
| climate change scenario analysis: The Economic Growth Engine Robert U. Ayres, Benjamin Warr, 2010-01-01 It gives me great pleasure to review this important book. I recommend it highly to any physicist with an interest or curiosity about this economy thing within which we operate. . . There is no excuse not to get this invaluable volume onto your bookshelf. Simon Roberts, Institute of Physics Energy Group This book addresses a very important topic, namely economic growth analysis from the angle of energy and material flows. The treatment is well balanced in terms of research and interpretation of the broader literature. The book not only contains a variety of empirical indicators, statistical analyses and insights, but also offers an unusually complete and pluralistic view on theorizing about economic growth and technological change. This results in a number of refreshing perspectives on known ideas and literatures. The text is so attractively written that I found it very difficult to stop reading. All in all, this is a very original and important contribution to the everlasting debate on growth versus environment. Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, University of Barcelona, Spain and Free University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Would you want your great-grandchildren in 2100AD to have a 22nd-century industrial economy? If so, read this book to grasp how strongly wealth depends on energy and its efficient use. Start treating fossil energy not as continuing income, but as one-time energy capital to spend on efficiency and long-term sustainable energy production. Otherwise, your descendants will inherit a broken 20th-century economy that only worked with cheap fossil fuels. They will not be rich and they will wonder what their ancestors were thinking. John R. Mashey, PhD, former Chief Scientist, Silicon Graphics Current economic theory attributes most income growth to technical progress. However, since technical progress can neither be defined nor measured, no one really knows what policies will encourage income growth. Ayres and Warr show that access to useful work, which can be defined and measured, explain the bulk of post-1900 income changes in Japan, Britain and the USA. They see rising real prices for fossil fuel and stagnating efficiencies of converting raw energy into useful work as a threat to continued income growth. This brilliant and original work has profound policy implications for future income growth without significant improvements in energy conversion efficiency. Thomas Casten, Chairman, Recycled Energy Development LLC Following the up-and-down energy shock of 2008, Ayres and Warr offer a unique analysis critical to our economic future. They argue that useful work produced by energy and energy services is far more important to overall GDP growth than conventional economic theory assumes. Their new theory, based on extensive empirical and theoretical analysis, has important implications for economists, businessmen and policymakers for anybody concerned with our economic future. Ayres and Warr argue persuasively that economic growth is not only endogenous but has been driven for the past two centuries largely by the declining effective cost of energy. If their new theory is correct, the inevitable future rise of the real cost of energy (beyond the $147 oil price peak in July 2008), could halt economic growth in the US and other advanced countries unless we dramatically improve energy with technology. J. Paul Horne, independent international market economist The historic link between output (GDP) growth and employment has weakened. Since there is no quantitively verifiable economic theory to explain past growth, this unique book explores the fundamental relationship between thermodynamics (physical work) and economics. The authors take a realistic approach to explaining the relationship between technological progress, thermodynamic efficiency and economic growth. Their findings are a step toward the integration of neo-classical and evolutionary perspectives on endogenous economic growth, concluding in a fundam |
| climate change scenario analysis: Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Ocean Studies Board, Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources, Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on Developing a Research Agenda for Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration, 2019-04-08 To achieve goals for climate and economic growth, negative emissions technologies (NETs) that remove and sequester carbon dioxide from the air will need to play a significant role in mitigating climate change. Unlike carbon capture and storage technologies that remove carbon dioxide emissions directly from large point sources such as coal power plants, NETs remove carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere or enhance natural carbon sinks. Storing the carbon dioxide from NETs has the same impact on the atmosphere and climate as simultaneously preventing an equal amount of carbon dioxide from being emitted. Recent analyses found that deploying NETs may be less expensive and less disruptive than reducing some emissions, such as a substantial portion of agricultural and land-use emissions and some transportation emissions. In 2015, the National Academies published Climate Intervention: Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration, which described and initially assessed NETs and sequestration technologies. This report acknowledged the relative paucity of research on NETs and recommended development of a research agenda that covers all aspects of NETs from fundamental science to full-scale deployment. To address this need, Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration: A Research Agenda assesses the benefits, risks, and sustainable scale potential for NETs and sequestration. This report also defines the essential components of a research and development program, including its estimated costs and potential impact. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Abrupt Climate Change National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Polar Research Board, Ocean Studies Board, Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, 2002-04-23 The climate record for the past 100,000 years clearly indicates that the climate system has undergone periodic-and often extreme-shifts, sometimes in as little as a decade or less. The causes of abrupt climate changes have not been clearly established, but the triggering of events is likely to be the result of multiple natural processes. Abrupt climate changes of the magnitude seen in the past would have far-reaching implications for human society and ecosystems, including major impacts on energy consumption and water supply demands. Could such a change happen again? Are human activities exacerbating the likelihood of abrupt climate change? What are the potential societal consequences of such a change? Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises looks at the current scientific evidence and theoretical understanding to describe what is currently known about abrupt climate change, including patterns and magnitudes, mechanisms, and probability of occurrence. It identifies critical knowledge gaps concerning the potential for future abrupt changes, including those aspects of change most important to society and economies, and outlines a research strategy to close those gaps. Based on the best and most current research available, this book surveys the history of climate change and makes a series of specific recommendations for the future. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009-08-24 Summarizes the science of climate change and impacts on the United States, for the public and policymakers. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Climate Change 2014 Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat, 2015 |
| climate change scenario analysis: The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2022-04-30 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Drawdown Paul Hawken, 2017-04-18 • New York Times bestseller • The 100 most substantive solutions to reverse global warming, based on meticulous research by leading scientists and policymakers around the world “At this point in time, the Drawdown book is exactly what is needed; a credible, conservative solution-by-solution narrative that we can do it. Reading it is an effective inoculation against the widespread perception of doom that humanity cannot and will not solve the climate crisis. Reported by-effects include increased determination and a sense of grounded hope.” —Per Espen Stoknes, Author, What We Think About When We Try Not To Think About Global Warming “There’s been no real way for ordinary people to get an understanding of what they can do and what impact it can have. There remains no single, comprehensive, reliable compendium of carbon-reduction solutions across sectors. At least until now. . . . The public is hungry for this kind of practical wisdom.” —David Roberts, Vox “This is the ideal environmental sciences textbook—only it is too interesting and inspiring to be called a textbook.” —Peter Kareiva, Director of the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, UCLA In the face of widespread fear and apathy, an international coalition of researchers, professionals, and scientists have come together to offer a set of realistic and bold solutions to climate change. One hundred techniques and practices are described here—some are well known; some you may have never heard of. They range from clean energy to educating girls in lower-income countries to land use practices that pull carbon out of the air. The solutions exist, are economically viable, and communities throughout the world are currently enacting them with skill and determination. If deployed collectively on a global scale over the next thirty years, they represent a credible path forward, not just to slow the earth’s warming but to reach drawdown, that point in time when greenhouse gases in the atmosphere peak and begin to decline. These measures promise cascading benefits to human health, security, prosperity, and well-being—giving us every reason to see this planetary crisis as an opportunity to create a just and livable world. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Shock Waves Stephane Hallegatte, Mook Bangalore, Laura Bonzanigo, Marianne Fay, Tamaro Kane, Ulf Narloch, Julie Rozenberg, David Treguer, Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2015-11-23 Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis Matthew E. Kahn, Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes, Ryan N. C. Ng, M. Hashem Pesaran, Mr.Mehdi Raissi, Jui-Chung Yang, 2019-10-11 We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Climate Impacts on Energy Systems Jane O. Ebinger, 2011 While the energy sector is a primary target of efforts to arrest and reverse the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and lower the carbon footprint of development, it is also expected to be increasingly affected by unavoidable climate consequences from the damage already induced in the biosphere. Energy services and resources, as well as seasonal demand, will be increasingly affected by changing trends, increasing variability, greater extremes and large inter-annual variations in climate parameters in some regions. All evidence suggests that adaptation is not an optional add-on but an essential reckoning on par with other business risks. Existing energy infrastructure, new infrastructure and future planning need to consider emerging climate conditions and impacts on design, construction, operation, and maintenance. Integrated risk-based planning processes will be critical to address the climate change impacts and harmonize actions within and across sectors. Also, awareness, knowledge, and capacity impede mainstreaming of climate adaptation into the energy sector. However, the formal knowledge base is still nascent?information needs are complex and to a certain extent regionally and sector specific. This report provides an up-to-date compendium of what is known about weather variability and projected climate trends and their impacts on energy service provision and demand. It discusses emerging practices and tools for managing these impacts and integrating climate considerations into planning processes and operational practices in an environment of uncertainty. It focuses on energy sector adaptation, rather than mitigation which is not discussed in this report. This report draws largely on available scientific and peer-reviewed literature in the public domain and takes the perspective of the developing world to the extent possible. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Climate Change The Royal Society, National Academy of Sciences, 2014-02-26 Climate Change: Evidence and Causes is a jointly produced publication of The US National Academy of Sciences and The Royal Society. Written by a UK-US team of leading climate scientists and reviewed by climate scientists and others, the publication is intended as a brief, readable reference document for decision makers, policy makers, educators, and other individuals seeking authoritative information on the some of the questions that continue to be asked. Climate Change makes clear what is well-established and where understanding is still developing. It echoes and builds upon the long history of climate-related work from both national academies, as well as on the newest climate-change assessment from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It touches on current areas of active debate and ongoing research, such as the link between ocean heat content and the rate of warming. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Climate and Social Stress National Research Council, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, Board on Environmental Change and Society, Committee on Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Social and Political Stresses, 2013-02-14 Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events-slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change. |
| climate change scenario analysis: The Fourth Industrial Revolution Klaus Schwab, 2017-01-03 World-renowned economist Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, explains that we have an opportunity to shape the fourth industrial revolution, which will fundamentally alter how we live and work. Schwab argues that this revolution is different in scale, scope and complexity from any that have come before. Characterized by a range of new technologies that are fusing the physical, digital and biological worlds, the developments are affecting all disciplines, economies, industries and governments, and even challenging ideas about what it means to be human. Artificial intelligence is already all around us, from supercomputers, drones and virtual assistants to 3D printing, DNA sequencing, smart thermostats, wearable sensors and microchips smaller than a grain of sand. But this is just the beginning: nanomaterials 200 times stronger than steel and a million times thinner than a strand of hair and the first transplant of a 3D printed liver are already in development. Imagine “smart factories” in which global systems of manufacturing are coordinated virtually, or implantable mobile phones made of biosynthetic materials. The fourth industrial revolution, says Schwab, is more significant, and its ramifications more profound, than in any prior period of human history. He outlines the key technologies driving this revolution and discusses the major impacts expected on government, business, civil society and individuals. Schwab also offers bold ideas on how to harness these changes and shape a better future—one in which technology empowers people rather than replaces them; progress serves society rather than disrupts it; and in which innovators respect moral and ethical boundaries rather than cross them. We all have the opportunity to contribute to developing new frameworks that advance progress. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy Haris Doukas, Alexandros Flamos, Jenny Lieu, 2018-12-10 This open access book analyzes and seeks to consolidate the use of robust quantitative tools and qualitative methods for the design and assessment of energy and climate policies. In particular, it examines energy and climate policy performance and associated risks, as well as public acceptance and portfolio analysis in climate policy, and presents methods for evaluating the costs and benefits of flexible policy implementation as well as new framings for business and market actors. In turn, it discusses the development of alternative policy pathways and the identification of optimal switching points, drawing on concrete examples to do so. Lastly, it discusses climate change mitigation policies’ implications for the agricultural, food, building, transportation, service and manufacturing sectors. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Believing Cassandra Alan AtKisson, 2011 First Published in 2010. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Scenario Planning in Organizations Thomas J. Chermack, 2011-02-14 Scenario planning helps organization leaders, executives and decision-makers envision and develop strategies for multiple possible futures instead of just one. It enables organizations to become resilient and agile, carefully calibrating their responses and adapting quickly to new circumstances in a fast-changing environment. This book is the most comprehensive treatment to date of the scenario planning process. Unlike existing books it offers a thorough discussion of the evolution and theoretical foundations of scenario planning, examining its connections to learning theory, decision-making theory, mental model theory and more. Chermack emphasizes that scenario planning is far more than a simple set of steps to follow, as so many other practice-focused books do—he addresses the subtleties and complexities of planning. And, unique among scenario planning books, he deals not just with developing different scenarios but also with applying scenarios once they have been constructed, and assessing the impact of the scenario project. Using a case study based on a real scenario project Chermack lays out a comprehensive five phase scenario planning system—project preparation, scenario exploration, scenario development, scenario implementation and project assessment. Each chapter describes specific techniques for gathering and analyzing relevant data with a particular emphasis on the use of workshops to encourage dialogue. He offers a scenario project worksheet to help readers structure and manage scenario projects as well as avoid common pitfalls, and a discussion, based in recent neurological findings, of how scenario planning helps people to overcome barriers to creative thinking. “This book is about action and performance. Compelling and thoroughly researched, it offers every business executive a playbook for including uncertainty in the organizational change process and driving competitive advantage”. -- Tim Reynolds, Vice President, Talent and Organization Effectiveness, Whirlpool Corporation |
| climate change scenario analysis: World Scientific Encyclopedia Of Climate Change: Case Studies Of Climate Risk, Action, And Opportunity (In 3 Volumes) Jan W Dash, 2021-03-18 The Climate Change Encyclopedia responds to the outstanding risk, survival, and ethical issue of our time, requiring action and providing opportunity. Primary-source expert authors write in a unique case-study structure that enables the Encyclopedia to be approachable, informational, and motivational for the public. The key focus areas are Climate Change and Finance, Economics, and Policy, with many other related climate categories included. The over 100 case studies provide realistic and interesting views of climate change, based on authors' published papers, reports, and books, plus climate-related activities of organizations, and selected topics. This inspiring work can enhance optimism and courage to act urgently and persistently on climate change, with foresight for a livable future.For more information on the list of contributors, please refer to https://www.worldscientific.com/page/encyclopedia-of-climate-change.Related Link(s) |
| climate change scenario analysis: Using Scenarios Thomas J. Chermack, 2022-02-01 This is the first book to offer detailed guidance on how scenarios can be used to help organizations make their toughest decisions in a world of ever-escalating crisis and opportunity. To reap the full benefits of scenarios, you have to be able to apply them in the real world. This groundbreaking book goes beyond the theoretical to clearly explain different ways scenarios can be used in business decision-making—from strategic planning and financial modeling to crisis response. Connecting scenarios to strategy and action can have many benefits, including the ability to react quickly, anticipate major changes in the environment, and identify major opportunities. Thomas Chermack, a top expert on scenario planning, offers seven specific ways organizations can use scenarios and provides a wide variety of examples, along with proven processes, exercises, and workshops that have been used successfully in organizations across industries and countries for more than fifteen years. |
| climate change scenario analysis: False Alarm Bjorn Lomborg, 2020-07-14 An “essential” (Times UK) and “meticulously researched” (Forbes) book by “the skeptical environmentalist” argues that panic over climate change is causing more harm than good Hurricanes batter our coasts. Wildfires rage across the American West. Glaciers collapse in the Artic. Politicians, activists, and the media espouse a common message: climate change is destroying the planet, and we must take drastic action immediately to stop it. Children panic about their future, and adults wonder if it is even ethical to bring new life into the world. Enough, argues bestselling author Bjorn Lomborg. Climate change is real, but it's not the apocalyptic threat that we've been told it is. Projections of Earth's imminent demise are based on bad science and even worse economics. In panic, world leaders have committed to wildly expensive but largely ineffective policies that hamper growth and crowd out more pressing investments in human capital, from immunization to education. False Alarm will convince you that everything you think about climate change is wrong -- and points the way toward making the world a vastly better, if slightly warmer, place for us all. |
| climate change scenario analysis: America's Climate Choices National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on America's Climate Choices, 2011-06-11 Climate change is occurring. It is very likely caused by the emission of greenhouse gases from human activities, and poses significant risks for a range of human and natural systems. And these emissions continue to increase, which will result in further change and greater risks. America's Climate Choices makes the case that the environmental, economic, and humanitarian risks posed by climate change indicate a pressing need for substantial action now to limit the magnitude of climate change and to prepare for adapting to its impacts. Although there is some uncertainty about future risk, acting now will reduce the risks posed by climate change and the pressure to make larger, more rapid, and potentially more expensive reductions later. Most actions taken to reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts are common sense investments that will offer protection against natural climate variations and extreme events. In addition, crucial investment decisions made now about equipment and infrastructure can lock in commitments to greenhouse gas emissions for decades to come. Finally, while it may be possible to scale back or reverse many responses to climate change, it is difficult or impossible to undo climate change, once manifested. Current efforts of local, state, and private-sector actors are important, but not likely to yield progress comparable to what could be achieved with the addition of strong federal policies that establish coherent national goals and incentives, and that promote strong U.S. engagement in international-level response efforts. The inherent complexities and uncertainties of climate change are best met by applying an iterative risk management framework and making efforts to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions; prepare for adapting to impacts; invest in scientific research, technology development, and information systems; and facilitate engagement between scientific and technical experts and the many types of stakeholders making America's climate choices. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Smart Cities Houbing Song, Ravi Srinivasan, Tamim Sookoor, Sabina Jeschke, 2017-07-12 Provides the foundations and principles needed for addressing the various challenges of developing smart cities Smart cities are emerging as a priority for research and development across the world. They open up significant opportunities in several areas, such as economic growth, health, wellness, energy efficiency, and transportation, to promote the sustainable development of cities. This book provides the basics of smart cities, and it examines the possible future trends of this technology. Smart Cities: Foundations, Principles, and Applications provides a systems science perspective in presenting the foundations and principles that span multiple disciplines for the development of smart cities. Divided into three parts—foundations, principles, and applications—Smart Cities addresses the various challenges and opportunities of creating smart cities and all that they have to offer. It also covers smart city theory modeling and simulation, and examines case studies of existing smart cities from all around the world. In addition, the book: Addresses how to develop a smart city and how to present the state of the art and practice of them all over the world Focuses on the foundations and principles needed for advancing the science, engineering, and technology of smart cities—including system design, system verification, real-time control and adaptation, Internet of Things, and test beds Covers applications of smart cities as they relate to smart transportation/connected vehicle (CV) and Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) for improved mobility, safety, and environmental protection Smart Cities: Foundations, Principles, and Applications is a welcome reference for the many researchers and professionals working on the development of smart cities and smart city-related industries. |
| climate change scenario analysis: What If? Randall Munroe, 2014 From the creator of the wildly popular webcomic xkcd, hilarious and informative answers to important questions you probably never thought to ask Millions of people visit xkcd.com each week to read Randall Munroe's iconic webcomic. His stick-figure drawings about science, technology, language, and love have an enormous, dedicated following, as do his deeply researched answers to his fans' strangest questions. The queries he receives range from merely odd to downright diabolical: - What if I took a swim in a spent-nuclear-fuel pool? - Could you build a jetpack using downward-firing machine guns? - What if a Richter 15 earthquake hit New York City? - Are fire tornadoes possible? His responses are masterpieces of clarity and wit, gleefully and accurately explaining everything from the relativistic effects of a baseball pitched at near the speed of light to the many horrible ways you could die while building a periodic table out of all the actual elements. The book features new and never-before-answered questions, along with the most popular answers from the xkcd website. What If? is an informative feast for xkcd fans and anyone who loves to ponder the hypothetical. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Advancing the Science of Climate Change National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change, 2011-01-10 Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for-and in many cases is already affecting-a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested suite of studies known as America's Climate Choices. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never closed, the book shows that hypotheses about climate change are supported by multiple lines of evidence and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. As decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute through research that improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change and also is useful to decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international levels. The book identifies decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions being made in response to climate change. Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a single federal entity or program to coordinate a national, multidisciplinary research effort aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes are identified to support this scientific enterprise. In addition, leaders of federal climate research should redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive climate observing system, improve climate models and other analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve linkages between research and decisions by forming partnerships with action-oriented programs. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Ground for Choices Wetenschappelijke Raad voor het Regeringsbeleid (Netherlands), 1992 WRR analyse EU landelijk gebied |
| climate change scenario analysis: Canada’s Top Climate Change Risks The Expert Panel on Climate Change Risks and Adaptation Potential, 2019-07-04 Canada’s Top Climate Change Risks identifies the top risk areas based on the extent and likelihood of the potential damage, and rates the risk areas according to society’s ability to adapt and reduce negative outcomes. These 12 major areas of risk are: agriculture and food, coastal communities, ecosystems, fisheries, forestry, geopolitical dynamics, governance and capacity, human health and wellness, Indigenous ways of life, northern communities, physical infrastructure, and water. The report describes an approach to inform federal risk prioritization and adaptation responses. The Panel outlines a multi-layered method of prioritizing adaptation measures based on an understanding of the risk, adaptation potential, and federal roles and responsibilities. |
| climate change scenario analysis: World Energy Outlook 2017 Agence internationale de l'énergie, International Energy Agency, 2018-01-19 The global energy scene is in a state of flux. Large-scale shifts include: the rapid deployment and steep declines in the costs of major renewable energy technologies; the growing importance of electricity in energy use across the globe; profound changes in China's economy and energy policy, moving consumption away from coal; and the continued surge in shale gas and tight oil production in the United States. These changes provide the backdrop for the World Energy Outlook-2017, which includes a full update of energy demand and supply projections to 2040 based on different scenarios. The projections are accompanied by detailed analyses of their impact on energy industries and investment, as well as implications for energy security and the environment. The report this year includes a focus on China, which examines how China's choices could reshape the global outlook for all fuels and technologies. A second focus, on natural gas, explores how the rise of shale gas and LNG are changing the global gas market as well as the opportunities and risks for gas in the transition to a cleaner energy system. Finally, the WEO-2017 introduces a major new scenario - the Sustainable Development Scenario - that outlines an integrated approach to achieving internationally agreed objectives on climate change, air quality and universal access to modern energy. |
| climate change scenario analysis: What If We Stopped Pretending? Jonathan Franzen, 2021-01-21 The climate change is coming. To prepare for it, we need to admit that we can’t prevent it. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change Ian Burton, Elizabeth Malone, Saleemul Huq, 2004-11-15 Adaptation is a process by which individuals, communities and countries seek to cope with the consequences of climate change. The process of adaptation is not new; the idea of incorporating future climate risk into policy-making is. While our understanding of climate change and its potential impacts has become clearer, the availability of practical guidance on adaptation has not kept pace. The development of the Adaptation Policy Framework (APF) is intended to help provide the rapidly evolving process of adaptation policy-making with a much-needed roadmap. Ultimately, the purpose of the APF is to support adaptation processes to protect - and enhance - human well-being in the face of climate change. This volume will be invaluable for everyone working on climate change adaptation and policy-making. |
| climate change scenario analysis: World Drug Report 2019 United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (author), 1901 The 2019 World Drug Report will include an updated overview of recent trends on production, trafficking and consumption of key illicit drugs. The Report contains a global overview of the baseline data and estimates on drug demand and supply and provides the reference point for information on the drug situation worldwide. |
| climate change scenario analysis: Cross-Impact Balances (CIB) for Scenario Analysis Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle, 2023-05-02 Cross-Impact Balances (CIB) is a method frequently used for research, in companies and in administrations for the systematic construction of qualitative scenarios. This book introduces the fundamentals of the method and uses a clear step-by-step example to explain how scenarios can be constructed with CIB. It describes possible problems in applying the method and offers help for various use cases. It includes a detailed discussion of the design decisions that shape a CIB application and the methods that can be used to collect the necessary data. The application examples presented provide a first impression of the possibilities of the method. A discussion of the strengths and limitations of the method offers guidance on the use cases in which CIB can be profitably applied. The book is valuable for researchers and practitioners in the field of scenario analysis. |
Climate - World Meteorological Organization
May 27, 2025 · The WMO Climate Services Information System (CSIS) is the principal mechanism through which information …
Climate change - World Meteorological Organization
May 28, 2025 · Climate change is the term used to describe changes in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes …
State of the Climate 2024 Update for COP29 - wmo.int
The WMO State of the Climate 2024 Update once again issues a Red Alert at the sheer pace of climate change in a single …
2024 State of Climate Services - wmo.int
The State of Climate Services report says that in 2024, one third of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) …
Climate change impacts grip globe in 2024 - wmo.int
Climate change impacts gripped the globe in 2024, with cascading impacts from mountain peaks to ocean depths and on …
Climate - World Meteorological Organization
May 27, 2025 · The WMO Climate Services Information System (CSIS) is the principal mechanism through which information about climate – past, present and future – is routinely …
Climate change - World Meteorological Organization
May 28, 2025 · Climate change is the term used to describe changes in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the average and/or the variability of its properties and that …
State of the Climate 2024 Update for COP29 - wmo.int
The WMO State of the Climate 2024 Update once again issues a Red Alert at the sheer pace of climate change in a single generation, turbo-charged by ever-increasing greenhouse gas …
2024 State of Climate Services - wmo.int
The State of Climate Services report says that in 2024, one third of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) provide climate services at an ‘essential’ level, and nearly one …
Climate change impacts grip globe in 2024 - wmo.int
Climate change impacts gripped the globe in 2024, with cascading impacts from mountain peaks to ocean depths and on communities, economies and the environment. Canva The year 2024 …
WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029)
May 28, 2025 · The WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029) projects that global temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, …
State of the Climate in Africa 2024 - wmo.int
May 12, 2025 · The Key Climate Indicators dashboard is a companion to the State of the Climate in Africa reports. State of the Climate in Africa 2024: Figures Figures as annexes to the State …
State of the Global Climate 2024 - public.wmo.int
Supplement: State of Climate Services 2024. Supplement: Significant Weather & Climate Events 2024. The clear signs of human-induced climate change reached new heights in 2024, which …
Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)
The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) is co-sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of the United …
About Essential Climate Variables - gcos.wmo.int
GCOS Climate monitoring principles. The GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles are intended to provide guidance to those involved in the design, development, deployment, and management …
