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| causal inference data science: Targeted Learning in Data Science Mark J. van der Laan, Sherri Rose, 2018-03-28 This textbook for graduate students in statistics, data science, and public health deals with the practical challenges that come with big, complex, and dynamic data. It presents a scientific roadmap to translate real-world data science applications into formal statistical estimation problems by using the general template of targeted maximum likelihood estimators. These targeted machine learning algorithms estimate quantities of interest while still providing valid inference. Targeted learning methods within data science area critical component for solving scientific problems in the modern age. The techniques can answer complex questions including optimal rules for assigning treatment based on longitudinal data with time-dependent confounding, as well as other estimands in dependent data structures, such as networks. Included in Targeted Learning in Data Science are demonstrations with soft ware packages and real data sets that present a case that targeted learning is crucial for the next generation of statisticians and data scientists. Th is book is a sequel to the first textbook on machine learning for causal inference, Targeted Learning, published in 2011. Mark van der Laan, PhD, is Jiann-Ping Hsu/Karl E. Peace Professor of Biostatistics and Statistics at UC Berkeley. His research interests include statistical methods in genomics, survival analysis, censored data, machine learning, semiparametric models, causal inference, and targeted learning. Dr. van der Laan received the 2004 Mortimer Spiegelman Award, the 2005 Van Dantzig Award, the 2005 COPSS Snedecor Award, the 2005 COPSS Presidential Award, and has graduated over 40 PhD students in biostatistics and statistics. Sherri Rose, PhD, is Associate Professor of Health Care Policy (Biostatistics) at Harvard Medical School. Her work is centered on developing and integrating innovative statistical approaches to advance human health. Dr. Rose’s methodological research focuses on nonparametric machine learning for causal inference and prediction. She co-leads the Health Policy Data Science Lab and currently serves as an associate editor for the Journal of the American Statistical Association and Biostatistics. |
| causal inference data science: Causal Inference for Data Scientists Adam Kelleher, 2019-10-16 |
| causal inference data science: Elements of Causal Inference Jonas Peters, Dominik Janzing, Bernhard Scholkopf, 2017-11-29 A concise and self-contained introduction to causal inference, increasingly important in data science and machine learning. The mathematization of causality is a relatively recent development, and has become increasingly important in data science and machine learning. This book offers a self-contained and concise introduction to causal models and how to learn them from data. After explaining the need for causal models and discussing some of the principles underlying causal inference, the book teaches readers how to use causal models: how to compute intervention distributions, how to infer causal models from observational and interventional data, and how causal ideas could be exploited for classical machine learning problems. All of these topics are discussed first in terms of two variables and then in the more general multivariate case. The bivariate case turns out to be a particularly hard problem for causal learning because there are no conditional independences as used by classical methods for solving multivariate cases. The authors consider analyzing statistical asymmetries between cause and effect to be highly instructive, and they report on their decade of intensive research into this problem. The book is accessible to readers with a background in machine learning or statistics, and can be used in graduate courses or as a reference for researchers. The text includes code snippets that can be copied and pasted, exercises, and an appendix with a summary of the most important technical concepts. |
| causal inference data science: Causal Inference in Statistics Judea Pearl, Madelyn Glymour, Nicholas P. Jewell, 2016-01-25 CAUSAL INFERENCE IN STATISTICS A Primer Causality is central to the understanding and use of data. Without an understanding of cause–effect relationships, we cannot use data to answer questions as basic as Does this treatment harm or help patients? But though hundreds of introductory texts are available on statistical methods of data analysis, until now, no beginner-level book has been written about the exploding arsenal of methods that can tease causal information from data. Causal Inference in Statistics fills that gap. Using simple examples and plain language, the book lays out how to define causal parameters; the assumptions necessary to estimate causal parameters in a variety of situations; how to express those assumptions mathematically; whether those assumptions have testable implications; how to predict the effects of interventions; and how to reason counterfactually. These are the foundational tools that any student of statistics needs to acquire in order to use statistical methods to answer causal questions of interest. This book is accessible to anyone with an interest in interpreting data, from undergraduates, professors, researchers, or to the interested layperson. Examples are drawn from a wide variety of fields, including medicine, public policy, and law; a brief introduction to probability and statistics is provided for the uninitiated; and each chapter comes with study questions to reinforce the readers understanding. |
| causal inference data science: Targeted Learning Mark J. van der Laan, Sherri Rose, 2011-06-17 The statistics profession is at a unique point in history. The need for valid statistical tools is greater than ever; data sets are massive, often measuring hundreds of thousands of measurements for a single subject. The field is ready to move towards clear objective benchmarks under which tools can be evaluated. Targeted learning allows (1) the full generalization and utilization of cross-validation as an estimator selection tool so that the subjective choices made by humans are now made by the machine, and (2) targeting the fitting of the probability distribution of the data toward the target parameter representing the scientific question of interest. This book is aimed at both statisticians and applied researchers interested in causal inference and general effect estimation for observational and experimental data. Part I is an accessible introduction to super learning and the targeted maximum likelihood estimator, including related concepts necessary to understand and apply these methods. Parts II-IX handle complex data structures and topics applied researchers will immediately recognize from their own research, including time-to-event outcomes, direct and indirect effects, positivity violations, case-control studies, censored data, longitudinal data, and genomic studies. |
| causal inference data science: An Introduction to Causal Inference Judea Pearl, 2015 This paper summarizes recent advances in causal inference and underscores the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that underly all causal inferences, the languages used in formulating those assumptions, the conditional nature of all causal and counterfactual claims, and the methods that have been developed for the assessment of such claims. These advances are illustrated using a general theory of causation based on the Structural Causal Model (SCM) described in Pearl (2000a), which subsumes and unifies other approaches to causation, and provides a coherent mathematical foundation for the analysis of causes and counterfactuals. In particular, the paper surveys the development of mathematical tools for inferring (from a combination of data and assumptions) answers to three types of causal queries: (1) queries about the effects of potential interventions, (also called causal effects or policy evaluation) (2) queries about probabilities of counterfactuals, (including assessment of regret, attribution or causes of effects) and (3) queries about direct and indirect effects (also known as mediation). Finally, the paper defines the formal and conceptual relationships between the structural and potential-outcome frameworks and presents tools for a symbiotic analysis that uses the strong features of both. The tools are demonstrated in the analyses of mediation, causes of effects, and probabilities of causation. -- p. 1. |
| causal inference data science: Causal Inference Miquel A. Hernan, James M. Robins, 2019-07-07 The application of causal inference methods is growing exponentially in fields that deal with observational data. Written by pioneers in the field, this practical book presents an authoritative yet accessible overview of the methods and applications of causal inference. With a wide range of detailed, worked examples using real epidemiologic data as well as software for replicating the analyses, the text provides a thorough introduction to the basics of the theory for non-time-varying treatments and the generalization to complex longitudinal data. |
| causal inference data science: Causal Inference Scott Cunningham, 2021-01-26 An accessible, contemporary introduction to the methods for determining cause and effect in the Social Sciences “Causation versus correlation has been the basis of arguments—economic and otherwise—since the beginning of time. Causal Inference: The Mixtape uses legit real-world examples that I found genuinely thought-provoking. It’s rare that a book prompts readers to expand their outlook; this one did for me.”—Marvin Young (Young MC) Causal inference encompasses the tools that allow social scientists to determine what causes what. In a messy world, causal inference is what helps establish the causes and effects of the actions being studied—for example, the impact (or lack thereof) of increases in the minimum wage on employment, the effects of early childhood education on incarceration later in life, or the influence on economic growth of introducing malaria nets in developing regions. Scott Cunningham introduces students and practitioners to the methods necessary to arrive at meaningful answers to the questions of causation, using a range of modeling techniques and coding instructions for both the R and the Stata programming languages. |
| causal inference data science: Fundamentals of Causal Inference Babette A. Brumback, 2021-11-10 One of the primary motivations for clinical trials and observational studies of humans is to infer cause and effect. Disentangling causation from confounding is of utmost importance. Fundamentals of Causal Inference explains and relates different methods of confounding adjustment in terms of potential outcomes and graphical models, including standardization, difference-in-differences estimation, the front-door method, instrumental variables estimation, and propensity score methods. It also covers effect-measure modification, precision variables, mediation analyses, and time-dependent confounding. Several real data examples, simulation studies, and analyses using R motivate the methods throughout. The book assumes familiarity with basic statistics and probability, regression, and R and is suitable for seniors or graduate students in statistics, biostatistics, and data science as well as PhD students in a wide variety of other disciplines, including epidemiology, pharmacy, the health sciences, education, and the social, economic, and behavioral sciences. Beginning with a brief history and a review of essential elements of probability and statistics, a unique feature of the book is its focus on real and simulated datasets with all binary variables to reduce complex methods down to their fundamentals. Calculus is not required, but a willingness to tackle mathematical notation, difficult concepts, and intricate logical arguments is essential. While many real data examples are included, the book also features the Double What-If Study, based on simulated data with known causal mechanisms, in the belief that the methods are best understood in circumstances where they are known to either succeed or fail. Datasets, R code, and solutions to odd-numbered exercises are available at www.routledge.com. |
| causal inference data science: The Book of Why Judea Pearl, Dana Mackenzie, 2018-05-15 A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence Correlation is not causation. This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why. |
| causal inference data science: Artificial Intelligence and Causal Inference Momiao Xiong, 2022-02-03 Artificial Intelligence and Causal Inference address the recent development of relationships between artificial intelligence (AI) and causal inference. Despite significant progress in AI, a great challenge in AI development we are still facing is to understand mechanism underlying intelligence, including reasoning, planning and imagination. Understanding, transfer and generalization are major principles that give rise intelligence. One of a key component for understanding is causal inference. Causal inference includes intervention, domain shift learning, temporal structure and counterfactual thinking as major concepts to understand causation and reasoning. Unfortunately, these essential components of the causality are often overlooked by machine learning, which leads to some failure of the deep learning. AI and causal inference involve (1) using AI techniques as major tools for causal analysis and (2) applying the causal concepts and causal analysis methods to solving AI problems. The purpose of this book is to fill the gap between the AI and modern causal analysis for further facilitating the AI revolution. This book is ideal for graduate students and researchers in AI, data science, causal inference, statistics, genomics, bioinformatics and precision medicine. Key Features: Cover three types of neural networks, formulate deep learning as an optimal control problem and use Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle for network training. Deep learning for nonlinear mediation and instrumental variable causal analysis. Construction of causal networks is formulated as a continuous optimization problem. Transformer and attention are used to encode-decode graphics. RL is used to infer large causal networks. Use VAE, GAN, neural differential equations, recurrent neural network (RNN) and RL to estimate counterfactual outcomes. AI-based methods for estimation of individualized treatment effect in the presence of network interference. |
| causal inference data science: The Effect Nick Huntington-Klein, 2021-12-20 Extensive code examples in R, Stata, and Python Chapters on overlooked topics in econometrics classes: heterogeneous treatment effects, simulation and power analysis, new cutting-edge methods, and uncomfortable ignored assumptions An easy-to-read conversational tone Up-to-date coverage of methods with fast-moving literatures like difference-in-differences |
| causal inference data science: Causality Judea Pearl, 2009-09-14 Causality offers the first comprehensive coverage of causal analysis in many sciences, including recent advances using graphical methods. Pearl presents a unified account of the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual and structural approaches to causation, and devises simple mathematical tools for analyzing the relationships between causal connections, statistical associations, actions and observations. The book will open the way for including causal analysis in the standard curriculum of statistics, artificial intelligence ... |
| causal inference data science: Statistical Models and Causal Inference David A. Freedman, 2010 David A. Freedman presents a definitive synthesis of his approach to statistical modeling and causal inference in the social sciences. |
| causal inference data science: Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences Guido W. Imbens, Donald B. Rubin, 2015-04-06 This text presents statistical methods for studying causal effects and discusses how readers can assess such effects in simple randomized experiments. |
| causal inference data science: Causal Inference for Data Science Alex Ruiz de Villa, 2023-07-25 When you know the cause of an event, you can affect its outcome. This accessible introduction to causal inference shows you how to determine causality and estimate effects using statistics and machine learning. Causal Inference for Data Science introduces data-centric techniques and methodologies you can use to estimate causal effects. The book dives into the relationship between causal inference and machine learning and the limitations of both. The practical techniques presented in this unique book are accessible to anyone with intermediate data science skills and require no advanced statistics! The numerous insightful examples show you how to put causal inference into practice in the real world. You’ll assess the performance of advertising platforms, choose the health treatments with the most positive impact, and learn how to approach the delicate art of product pricing from a causal inference perspective. Purchase of the print book includes a free eBook in PDF, Kindle, and ePub formats from Manning Publications. |
| causal inference data science: Methods Matter Richard J. Murnane, John B. Willett, 2010-09-17 Educational policy-makers around the world constantly make decisions about how to use scarce resources to improve the education of children. Unfortunately, their decisions are rarely informed by evidence on the consequences of these initiatives in other settings. Nor are decisions typically accompanied by well-formulated plans to evaluate their causal impacts. As a result, knowledge about what works in different situations has been very slow to accumulate. Over the last several decades, advances in research methodology, administrative record keeping, and statistical software have dramatically increased the potential for researchers to conduct compelling evaluations of the causal impacts of educational interventions, and the number of well-designed studies is growing. Written in clear, concise prose, Methods Matter: Improving Causal Inference in Educational and Social Science Research offers essential guidance for those who evaluate educational policies. Using numerous examples of high-quality studies that have evaluated the causal impacts of important educational interventions, the authors go beyond the simple presentation of new analytical methods to discuss the controversies surrounding each study, and provide heuristic explanations that are also broadly accessible. Murnane and Willett offer strong methodological insights on causal inference, while also examining the consequences of a wide variety of educational policies implemented in the U.S. and abroad. Representing a unique contribution to the literature surrounding educational research, this landmark text will be invaluable for students and researchers in education and public policy, as well as those interested in social science. |
| causal inference data science: Regression Methods in Biostatistics Eric Vittinghoff, David V. Glidden, Stephen C. Shiboski, Charles E. McCulloch, 2012 This fresh edition, substantially revised and augmented, provides a unified, in-depth, readable introduction to the multipredictor regression methods most widely used in biostatistics. The examples used, analyzed using Stata, can be applied to other areas. |
| causal inference data science: Cause and Explanation in Ancient Greek Thought R. J. Hankinson, 2001 R. J. Hankinson traces the history of ancient Greek thinking about causation and explanation, from its earliest beginnings through more than a thousand years to the middle of the first millennium of the Christian era. He examines ways in which the Ancient Greeks dealt with questions about how and why things happen as and when they do, about the basic constitution and structure of things, about function and purpose, laws of nature, chance, coincidence, and responsibility. |
| causal inference data science: Mostly Harmless Econometrics Joshua D. Angrist, Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009-01-04 In addition to econometric essentials, this book covers important new extensions as well as how to get standard errors right. The authors explain why fancier econometric techniques are typically unnecessary and even dangerous. |
| causal inference data science: Applied Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference from Incomplete-Data Perspectives Andrew Gelman, Xiao-Li Meng, 2004-09-03 This book brings together a collection of articles on statistical methods relating to missing data analysis, including multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables, and Bayesian inference. Covering new research topics and real-world examples which do not feature in many standard texts. The book is dedicated to Professor Don Rubin (Harvard). Don Rubin has made fundamental contributions to the study of missing data. Key features of the book include: Comprehensive coverage of an imporant area for both research and applications. Adopts a pragmatic approach to describing a wide range of intermediate and advanced statistical techniques. Covers key topics such as multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables and Bayesian inference. Includes a number of applications from the social and health sciences. Edited and authored by highly respected researchers in the area. |
| causal inference data science: The SAGE Handbook of Regression Analysis and Causal Inference Henning Best, Christof Wolf, 2013-12-20 ′The editors of the new SAGE Handbook of Regression Analysis and Causal Inference have assembled a wide-ranging, high-quality, and timely collection of articles on topics of central importance to quantitative social research, many written by leaders in the field. Everyone engaged in statistical analysis of social-science data will find something of interest in this book.′ - John Fox, Professor, Department of Sociology, McMaster University ′The authors do a great job in explaining the various statistical methods in a clear and simple way - focussing on fundamental understanding, interpretation of results, and practical application - yet being precise in their exposition.′ - Ben Jann, Executive Director, Institute of Sociology, University of Bern ′Best and Wolf have put together a powerful collection, especially valuable in its separate discussions of uses for both cross-sectional and panel data analysis.′ -Tom Smith, Senior Fellow, NORC, University of Chicago Edited and written by a team of leading international social scientists, this Handbook provides a comprehensive introduction to multivariate methods. The Handbook focuses on regression analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal data with an emphasis on causal analysis, thereby covering a large number of different techniques including selection models, complex samples, and regression discontinuities. Each Part starts with a non-mathematical introduction to the method covered in that section, giving readers a basic knowledge of the method’s logic, scope and unique features. Next, the mathematical and statistical basis of each method is presented along with advanced aspects. Using real-world data from the European Social Survey (ESS) and the Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), the book provides a comprehensive discussion of each method’s application, making this an ideal text for PhD students and researchers embarking on their own data analysis. |
| causal inference data science: Product Analytics Joanne Rodrigues, 2020-08-27 Use Product Analytics to Understand Consumer Behavior and Change It at Scale Product Analytics is a complete, hands-on guide to generating actionable business insights from customer data. Experienced data scientist and enterprise manager Joanne Rodrigues introduces practical statistical techniques for determining why things happen and how to change what people do at scale. She complements these with powerful social science techniques for creating better theories, designing better metrics, and driving more rapid and sustained behavior change. Writing for entrepreneurs, product managers/marketers, and other business practitioners, Rodrigues teaches through intuitive examples from both web and offline environments. Avoiding math-heavy explanations, she guides you step by step through choosing the right techniques and algorithms for each application, running analyses in R, and getting answers you can trust. Develop core metrics and effective KPIs for user analytics in any web product Truly understand statistical inference, and the differences between correlation and causation Conduct more effective A/B tests Build intuitive predictive models to capture user behavior in products Use modern, quasi-experimental designs and statistical matching to tease out causal effects from observational data Improve response through uplift modeling and other sophisticated targeting methods Project business costs/subgroup population changes via advanced demographic projection Whatever your product or service, this guide can help you create precision-targeted marketing campaigns, improve consumer satisfaction and engagement, and grow revenue and profits. Register your book for convenient access to downloads, updates, and/or corrections as they become available. See inside book for details. |
| causal inference data science: Theory-Based Data Analysis for the Social Sciences Carol S. Aneshensel, 2013 This book presents the elaboration model for the multivariate analysis of observational quantitative data. This model entails the systematic introduction of third variables to the analysis of a focal relationship between one independent and one dependent variable to ascertain whether an inference of causality is justified. Two complementary strategies are used: an exclusionary strategy that rules out alternative explanations such as spuriousness and redundancy with competing theories, and an inclusive strategy that connects the focal relationship to a network of other relationships, including the hypothesized causal mechanisms linking the focal independent variable to the focal dependent variable. The primary emphasis is on the translation of theory into a logical analytic strategy and the interpretation of results. The elaboration model is applied with case studies drawn from newly published research that serve as prototypes for aligning theory and the data analytic plan used to test it; these studies are drawn from a wide range of substantive topics in the social sciences, such as emotion management in the workplace, subjective age identification during the transition to adulthood, and the relationship between religious and paranormal beliefs. The second application of the elaboration model is in the form of original data analysis presented in two Analysis Journals that are integrated throughout the text and implement the full elaboration model. Using real data, not contrived examples, the text provides a step-by-step guide through the process of integrating theory with data analysis in order to arrive at meaningful answers to research questions. |
| causal inference data science: Explanation in Causal Inference Tyler J. VanderWeele, 2015 A comprehensive examination of methods for mediation and interaction, VanderWeele's book is the first to approach this topic from the perspective of causal inference. Numerous software tools are provided, and the text is both accessible and easy to read, with examples drawn from diverse fields. The result is an essential reference for anyone conducting empirical research in the biomedical or social sciences. |
| causal inference data science: Mastering 'Metrics Joshua D. Angrist, Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2014-12-21 From Joshua Angrist, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, and Jörn-Steffen Pischke, an accessible and fun guide to the essential tools of econometric research Applied econometrics, known to aficionados as 'metrics, is the original data science. 'Metrics encompasses the statistical methods economists use to untangle cause and effect in human affairs. Through accessible discussion and with a dose of kung fu–themed humor, Mastering 'Metrics presents the essential tools of econometric research and demonstrates why econometrics is exciting and useful. The five most valuable econometric methods, or what the authors call the Furious Five—random assignment, regression, instrumental variables, regression discontinuity designs, and differences in differences—are illustrated through well-crafted real-world examples (vetted for awesomeness by Kung Fu Panda's Jade Palace). Does health insurance make you healthier? Randomized experiments provide answers. Are expensive private colleges and selective public high schools better than more pedestrian institutions? Regression analysis and a regression discontinuity design reveal the surprising truth. When private banks teeter, and depositors take their money and run, should central banks step in to save them? Differences-in-differences analysis of a Depression-era banking crisis offers a response. Could arresting O. J. Simpson have saved his ex-wife's life? Instrumental variables methods instruct law enforcement authorities in how best to respond to domestic abuse. Wielding econometric tools with skill and confidence, Mastering 'Metrics uses data and statistics to illuminate the path from cause to effect. Shows why econometrics is important Explains econometric research through humorous and accessible discussion Outlines empirical methods central to modern econometric practice Works through interesting and relevant real-world examples |
| causal inference data science: Causality Carlo Berzuini, Philip Dawid, Luisa Bernardinell, 2012-06-04 A state of the art volume on statistical causality Causality: Statistical Perspectives and Applications presents a wide-ranging collection of seminal contributions by renowned experts in the field, providing a thorough treatment of all aspects of statistical causality. It covers the various formalisms in current use, methods for applying them to specific problems, and the special requirements of a range of examples from medicine, biology and economics to political science. This book: Provides a clear account and comparison of formal languages, concepts and models for statistical causality. Addresses examples from medicine, biology, economics and political science to aid the reader's understanding. Is authored by leading experts in their field. Is written in an accessible style. Postgraduates, professional statisticians and researchers in academia and industry will benefit from this book. |
| causal inference data science: Big Data in Omics and Imaging Momiao Xiong, 2018-06-14 Big Data in Omics and Imaging: Integrated Analysis and Causal Inference addresses the recent development of integrated genomic, epigenomic and imaging data analysis and causal inference in big data era. Despite significant progress in dissecting the genetic architecture of complex diseases by genome-wide association studies (GWAS), genome-wide expression studies (GWES), and epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS), the overall contribution of the new identified genetic variants is small and a large fraction of genetic variants is still hidden. Understanding the etiology and causal chain of mechanism underlying complex diseases remains elusive. It is time to bring big data, machine learning and causal revolution to developing a new generation of genetic analysis for shifting the current paradigm of genetic analysis from shallow association analysis to deep causal inference and from genetic analysis alone to integrated omics and imaging data analysis for unraveling the mechanism of complex diseases. FEATURES Provides a natural extension and companion volume to Big Data in Omic and Imaging: Association Analysis, but can be read independently. Introduce causal inference theory to genomic, epigenomic and imaging data analysis Develop novel statistics for genome-wide causation studies and epigenome-wide causation studies. Bridge the gap between the traditional association analysis and modern causation analysis Use combinatorial optimization methods and various causal models as a general framework for inferring multilevel omic and image causal networks Present statistical methods and computational algorithms for searching causal paths from genetic variant to disease Develop causal machine learning methods integrating causal inference and machine learning Develop statistics for testing significant difference in directed edge, path, and graphs, and for assessing causal relationships between two networks The book is designed for graduate students and researchers in genomics, epigenomics, medical image, bioinformatics, and data science. Topics covered are: mathematical formulation of causal inference, information geometry for causal inference, topology group and Haar measure, additive noise models, distance correlation, multivariate causal inference and causal networks, dynamic causal networks, multivariate and functional structural equation models, mixed structural equation models, causal inference with confounders, integer programming, deep learning and differential equations for wearable computing, genetic analysis of function-valued traits, RNA-seq data analysis, causal networks for genetic methylation analysis, gene expression and methylation deconvolution, cell –specific causal networks, deep learning for image segmentation and image analysis, imaging and genomic data analysis, integrated multilevel causal genomic, epigenomic and imaging data analysis. |
| causal inference data science: The Politics of Resentment Katherine J. Cramer, 2016-03-23 “An important contribution to the literature on contemporary American politics. Both methodologically and substantively, it breaks new ground.” —Journal of Sociology & Social Welfare When Scott Walker was elected Governor of Wisconsin, the state became the focus of debate about the appropriate role of government. In a time of rising inequality, Walker not only survived a bitterly contested recall, he was subsequently reelected. But why were the very people who would benefit from strong government services so vehemently against the idea of big government? With The Politics of Resentment, Katherine J. Cramer uncovers an oft-overlooked piece of the puzzle: rural political consciousness and the resentment of the “liberal elite.” Rural voters are distrustful that politicians will respect the distinct values of their communities and allocate a fair share of resources. What can look like disagreements about basic political principles are therefore actually rooted in something even more fundamental: who we are as people and how closely a candidate’s social identity matches our own. Taking a deep dive into Wisconsin’s political climate, Cramer illuminates the contours of rural consciousness, showing how place-based identities profoundly influence how people understand politics. The Politics of Resentment shows that rural resentment—no less than partisanship, race, or class—plays a major role in dividing America against itself. |
| causal inference data science: Spurious Correlations Tyler Vigen, 2015-05-12 Spurious Correlations ... is the most fun you'll ever have with graphs. -- Bustle Military intelligence analyst and Harvard Law student Tyler Vigen illustrates the golden rule that correlation does not equal causation through hilarious graphs inspired by his viral website. Is there a correlation between Nic Cage films and swimming pool accidents? What about beef consumption and people getting struck by lightning? Absolutely not. But that hasn't stopped millions of people from going to tylervigen.com and asking, Wait, what? Vigen has designed software that scours enormous data sets to find unlikely statistical correlations. He began pulling the funniest ones for his website and has since gained millions of views, hundreds of thousands of likes, and tons of media coverage. Subversive and clever, Spurious Correlations is geek humor at its finest, nailing our obsession with data and conspiracy theory. |
| causal inference data science: Trustworthy Online Controlled Experiments Ron Kohavi, Diane Tang, Ya Xu, 2020-04-02 Getting numbers is easy; getting numbers you can trust is hard. This practical guide by experimentation leaders at Google, LinkedIn, and Microsoft will teach you how to accelerate innovation using trustworthy online controlled experiments, or A/B tests. Based on practical experiences at companies that each run more than 20,000 controlled experiments a year, the authors share examples, pitfalls, and advice for students and industry professionals getting started with experiments, plus deeper dives into advanced topics for practitioners who want to improve the way they make data-driven decisions. Learn how to • Use the scientific method to evaluate hypotheses using controlled experiments • Define key metrics and ideally an Overall Evaluation Criterion • Test for trustworthiness of the results and alert experimenters to violated assumptions • Build a scalable platform that lowers the marginal cost of experiments close to zero • Avoid pitfalls like carryover effects and Twyman's law • Understand how statistical issues play out in practice. |
| causal inference data science: Bayesian Methods for Hackers Cameron Davidson-Pilon, 2015-09-30 Master Bayesian Inference through Practical Examples and Computation–Without Advanced Mathematical Analysis Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You’ll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you’ve mastered these techniques, you’ll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects. Coverage includes • Learning the Bayesian “state of mind” and its practical implications • Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference • Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses • Building and debugging models with PyMC • Testing your model’s “goodness of fit” • Opening the “black box” of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works • Leveraging the power of the “Law of Large Numbers” • Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning • Using loss functions to measure an estimate’s weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes • Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size • Overcoming the “exploration versus exploitation” dilemma: deciding when “pretty good” is good enough • Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing • Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify. |
| causal inference data science: Experiments in Public Management Research Oliver James, Sebastian R. Jilke, Gregg G. Van Ryzin, 2017-07-27 An overview of experimental research and methods in public management, and their impact on theory, research practices and substantive knowledge. |
| causal inference data science: Probabilistic Machine Learning Kevin P. Murphy, 2022-03-01 A detailed and up-to-date introduction to machine learning, presented through the unifying lens of probabilistic modeling and Bayesian decision theory. This book offers a detailed and up-to-date introduction to machine learning (including deep learning) through the unifying lens of probabilistic modeling and Bayesian decision theory. The book covers mathematical background (including linear algebra and optimization), basic supervised learning (including linear and logistic regression and deep neural networks), as well as more advanced topics (including transfer learning and unsupervised learning). End-of-chapter exercises allow students to apply what they have learned, and an appendix covers notation. Probabilistic Machine Learning grew out of the author’s 2012 book, Machine Learning: A Probabilistic Perspective. More than just a simple update, this is a completely new book that reflects the dramatic developments in the field since 2012, most notably deep learning. In addition, the new book is accompanied by online Python code, using libraries such as scikit-learn, JAX, PyTorch, and Tensorflow, which can be used to reproduce nearly all the figures; this code can be run inside a web browser using cloud-based notebooks, and provides a practical complement to the theoretical topics discussed in the book. This introductory text will be followed by a sequel that covers more advanced topics, taking the same probabilistic approach. |
| causal inference data science: Time and Causality Across the Sciences Samantha Kleinberg, 2019-09-26 Explores the critical role time plays in our understanding of causality, across psychology, biology, physics and the social sciences. |
| causal inference data science: A Guide on Data Analysis Mike Nguyen, 2020-11-18 Embark on a captivating journey through the world of data analysis with A Guide on Data Analysis. This engaging, user-friendly, and free guide offers a comprehensive approach to mastering the essentials of statistics and data science, perfect for beginners and those looking to deepen their understanding. Whether you're new to the field or simply wish to enhance your skills, this free resource caters to your needs. Although the author's primary interest is in marketing, the principles and methods shared can be applied across a range of disciplines that involve scientific methods and data analysis. |
| causal inference data science: Computer Age Statistical Inference Bradley Efron, Trevor Hastie, 2016-07-21 The twenty-first century has seen a breathtaking expansion of statistical methodology, both in scope and in influence. 'Big data', 'data science', and 'machine learning' have become familiar terms in the news, as statistical methods are brought to bear upon the enormous data sets of modern science and commerce. How did we get here? And where are we going? This book takes us on an exhilarating journey through the revolution in data analysis following the introduction of electronic computation in the 1950s. Beginning with classical inferential theories - Bayesian, frequentist, Fisherian - individual chapters take up a series of influential topics: survival analysis, logistic regression, empirical Bayes, the jackknife and bootstrap, random forests, neural networks, Markov chain Monte Carlo, inference after model selection, and dozens more. The distinctly modern approach integrates methodology and algorithms with statistical inference. The book ends with speculation on the future direction of statistics and data science. |
| causal inference data science: Causal Inference in Python Matheus Facure, 2023-07-14 How many buyers will an additional dollar of online marketing bring in? Which customers will only buy when given a discount coupon? How do you establish an optimal pricing strategy? The best way to determine how the levers at our disposal affect the business metrics we want to drive is through causal inference. In this book, author Matheus Facure, senior data scientist at Nubank, explains the largely untapped potential of causal inference for estimating impacts and effects. Managers, data scientists, and business analysts will learn classical causal inference methods like randomized control trials (A/B tests), linear regression, propensity score, synthetic controls, and difference-in-differences. Each method is accompanied by an application in the industry to serve as a grounding example. With this book, you will: Learn how to use basic concepts of causal inference Frame a business problem as a causal inference problem Understand how bias gets in the way of causal inference Learn how causal effects can differ from person to person Use repeated observations of the same customers across time to adjust for biases Understand how causal effects differ across geographic locations Examine noncompliance bias and effect dilution |
| causal inference data science: Deep Learning for Coders with fastai and PyTorch Jeremy Howard, Sylvain Gugger, 2020-06-29 Deep learning is often viewed as the exclusive domain of math PhDs and big tech companies. But as this hands-on guide demonstrates, programmers comfortable with Python can achieve impressive results in deep learning with little math background, small amounts of data, and minimal code. How? With fastai, the first library to provide a consistent interface to the most frequently used deep learning applications. Authors Jeremy Howard and Sylvain Gugger, the creators of fastai, show you how to train a model on a wide range of tasks using fastai and PyTorch. You’ll also dive progressively further into deep learning theory to gain a complete understanding of the algorithms behind the scenes. Train models in computer vision, natural language processing, tabular data, and collaborative filtering Learn the latest deep learning techniques that matter most in practice Improve accuracy, speed, and reliability by understanding how deep learning models work Discover how to turn your models into web applications Implement deep learning algorithms from scratch Consider the ethical implications of your work Gain insight from the foreword by PyTorch cofounder, Soumith Chintala |
| causal inference data science: Ten Great Ideas about Chance Persi Diaconis, Brian Skyrms, 2019-10-08 In the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, gamblers and mathematicians transformed the idea of chance from a mystery into the discipline of probability, setting the stage for a series of breakthroughs that enabled or transformed innumerable fields, from gambling, mathematics, statistics, economics, and finance to physics and computer science. This book tells the story of ten great ideas about chance and the thinkers who developed them, tracing the philosophical implications of these ideas as well as their mathematical impact. |
CAUSAL Definition & Meaning - Merriam-Webster
The meaning of CAUSAL is expressing or indicating cause : causative. How to use causal in a sentence.
Causal: The finance platform for startups
Causal replaces your spreadsheets with a better way to build models, connect to data (accounting, CRM), and share dashboards with your team. Sign up for free.
CAUSAL | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
CAUSAL definition: 1. a relationship, link, etc. between two things in which one causes the other: 2. a relationship…. Learn more.
Causality - Wikipedia
Causality is an influence by which one event, process, state, or object (a cause) contributes to the production of another event, process, state, or object (an effect) where the cause is at least …
CAUSAL Definition & Meaning | Dictionary.com
Causal definition: of, constituting, or implying a cause.. See examples of CAUSAL used in a sentence.
CAUSAL definition and meaning | Collins English Dictionary
If there is a causal relationship between two things, one thing is responsible for causing the other thing.
Causal - definition of causal by The Free Dictionary
1. Of, involving, or constituting a cause: a causal relationship between scarcity of goods and higher prices. 2. Indicative of or expressing a cause.
causal adjective - Definition, pictures, pronunciation and usage …
Definition of causal adjective in Oxford Advanced Learner's Dictionary. Meaning, pronunciation, picture, example sentences, grammar, usage notes, synonyms and more.
causal - Wiktionary, the free dictionary
Jan 18, 2025 · causal (comparative more causal, superlative most causal) of, relating to, or being a cause of something; causing There is no causal relationship between eating carrots and …
causal, adj. & n. meanings, etymology and more | Oxford English …
What does the word causal mean? There are six meanings listed in OED's entry for the word causal. See ‘Meaning & use’ for definitions, usage, and quotation evidence. causal has …
CAUSAL Definition & Meaning - Merriam-Webster
The meaning of CAUSAL is expressing or indicating cause : causative. How to use causal in a sentence.
Causal: The finance platform for startups
Causal replaces your spreadsheets with a better way to build models, connect to data (accounting, CRM), and share dashboards with your team. Sign up for free.
CAUSAL | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
CAUSAL definition: 1. a relationship, link, etc. between two things in which one causes the other: 2. a relationship…. Learn more.
Causality - Wikipedia
Causality is an influence by which one event, process, state, or object (a cause) contributes to the production of another event, process, state, or object (an effect) where the cause is at least …
CAUSAL Definition & Meaning | Dictionary.com
Causal definition: of, constituting, or implying a cause.. See examples of CAUSAL used in a sentence.
CAUSAL definition and meaning | Collins English Dictionary
If there is a causal relationship between two things, one thing is responsible for causing the other thing.
Causal - definition of causal by The Free Dictionary
1. Of, involving, or constituting a cause: a causal relationship between scarcity of goods and higher prices. 2. Indicative of or expressing a cause.
causal adjective - Definition, pictures, pronunciation and usage …
Definition of causal adjective in Oxford Advanced Learner's Dictionary. Meaning, pronunciation, picture, example sentences, grammar, usage notes, synonyms and more.
causal - Wiktionary, the free dictionary
Jan 18, 2025 · causal (comparative more causal, superlative most causal) of, relating to, or being a cause of something; causing There is no causal relationship between eating carrots and …
causal, adj. & n. meanings, etymology and more | Oxford English …
What does the word causal mean? There are six meanings listed in OED's entry for the word causal. See ‘Meaning & use’ for definitions, usage, and quotation evidence. causal has …
