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| challenges of intelligence analysis: Challenges in Intelligence Analysis Timothy Walton, 2010-08-30 In Challenges in Intelligence Analysis, first published in 2010, Timothy Walton offers concrete, reality-based ways to improve intelligence analysis. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Challenges in Intelligence Analysis Timothy Walton, 2010-08-30 In Challenges in Intelligence Analysis, Timothy Walton offers concrete, reality-based ways to improve intelligence analysis. After a brief introduction to the main concepts of analysis, he provides more than forty historical and contemporary examples that demonstrate what has, and what has not, been effective when grappling with difficult problems. The examples cover a wide span of time, going back 3,000 years. They are also global in scope and deal with a variety of political, military, economic, and social issues. Walton emphasizes the importance of critical and creative thinking and how such thinking can be enhanced. His 2010 book provides a detailed and balanced idea of intelligence work and will be of particular interest to students who are contemplating a career in intelligence analysis. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Challenges in Intelligence Analysis Timothy Walton, 1900 In Challenges in Intelligence Analysis, Timothy Walton offers concrete, reality-based ways to improve intelligence analysis. After a brief introduction to the main concepts of analysis, he provides more than forty historical and contemporary examples that demonstrate what has, and what has not, been effective when grappling with difficult problems. The examples cover a wide span of time, going back 3,000 years. They are also global in scope and deal with a variety of political, military, economic, and social issues. Walton emphasizes the importance of critical and creative thinking and how suc. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow National Research Council, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, 2011-04-08 The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Analyzing Intelligence Roger Z. George, James B. Bruce, 2008-04-09 Drawing on the individual and collective experience of recognized intelligence experts and scholars in the field, Analyzing Intelligence provides the first comprehensive assessment of the state of intelligence analysis since 9/11. Its in-depth and balanced evaluation of more than fifty years of U.S. analysis includes a critique of why it has under-performed at times. It provides insights regarding the enduring obstacles as well as new challenges of analysis in the post-9/11 world, and suggests innovative ideas for improved analytical methods, training, and structured approaches. The book's six sections present a coherent plan for improving analysis. Early chapters examine how intelligence analysis has evolved since its origins in the mid-20th century, focusing on traditions, culture, successes, and failures. The middle sections examine how analysis supports the most senior national security and military policymakers and strategists, and how analysts must deal with the perennial challenges of collection, politicization, analytical bias, knowledge building and denial and deception. The final sections of the book propose new ways to address enduring issues in warning analysis, methodology (or analytical tradecraft) and emerging analytic issues like homeland defense. The book suggests new forms of analytic collaboration in a global intelligence environment, and imperatives for the development of a new profession of intelligence analysis. Analyzing Intelligence is written for the national security expert who needs to understand the role of intelligence and its strengths and weaknesses. Practicing and future analysts will also find that its attention to the enduring challenges provides useful lessons-learned to guide their own efforts. The innovations section will provoke senior intelligence managers to consider major changes in the way analysis is currently organized and conducted, and the way that analysts are trained and perform. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Intelligence and Intelligence Analysis Patrick Walsh, 2011-05-31 This book tracks post 9/11 developments in national security and policing intelligence and their relevance to new emerging areas of intelligence practice such as: corrections, biosecurity, private industry and regulatory environments. Developments are explored thematically across three broad sections: applying intelligence understanding structures developing a discipline. Issues explored include: understanding intelligence models; the strategic management challenges of intelligence; intelligence capacity building; and the ethical dimensions of intelligence practice. Using case studies collected from wide-ranging interviews with leaders, managers and intelligence practitioners from a range of practice areas in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and US, the book indentifies examples of good practice across countries and agencies that may be relevant to other settings. Uniquely bringing together significant theoretical and practical developments in a sample of traditional and emerging areas of intelligence, this book provides readers with a more holistic and inter-disciplinary perspective on the evolving intelligence field across several different practice contexts. Intelligence and Intelligence Analysis will be relevant to a broad audience including intelligence practitioners and managers working across all fields of intelligence (national security, policing, private industry and emerging areas) as well as students taking courses in policing and intelligence analysis. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Intelligence Analysis National Research Council, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, 2011-03-08 The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Intelligence Analysis and Assessment David Charters, Stuart Farson, Glenn P. Hastedt, 2013-11-05 These essays cover: assessment systems now in place in Britain, the USA, Germany and Australia; the bureaucratic dynamics of analysis and assessment; the changing ground in intelligence; and the impact of new technologies and modes of communication on intelligence gathering and analysis. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Intelligence and the National Security Strategist Roger Z. George, Robert D. Kline, 2006 Presents students with an anthology of published articles from diverse sources as well as contributions to the study of intelligence. This collection includes perspectives from the history of warfare, views on the evolution of US intelligence, and studies on the balance between the need for information-gathering and the values of a democracy. - publisher. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Richards J Heuer, 2020-03-05 In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped (poorly wired) to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Reducing Uncertainty Thomas Fingar, 2011-07-20 This book describes what Intelligence Community (IC) analysts do, how they do it, and how they are affected by the political context that shapes, uses, and sometimes abuses their output. It is written by a 25-year intelligence professional. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Assessing the Tradecraft of Intelligence Analysis Gregory F. Treverton, Claybourne Bryan Gabbard, 2008 This report assesses the tradecraft of intelligence analysis across the main U.S. intelligence agencies, such as the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency, and recommends improvements. The report makes a number of recommendations for improving analysis for a world of threats very different from that of the Cold War. It focuses on the two essentials of analysis-first, people; second, the tools they have available. The December 2004 intelligence reform legislation set in motion initiatives that move in the right direction. The creation of a Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Analysis will provide a real hub for developing tradecraft and tools and for framing critical tradeoffs. The establishment of a National Intelligence University will provide a focal point for training in analysis. The creation of a National Counterterrorism Center will shift intelligence analysis toward problems or issues, not agencies or sources. The building of a Long Term Analysis Unit at the National Intelligence Council can lead away from the prevailing dominance of current intelligence. And the formation of an Open Source Center can create a seed bed for making more creative use of open-source materials. These specific initiatives are promising but they are just the beginnings. For all the language about the importance of intelligence analysis, data-sharing, fusion, and the like, the national and Intelligence Community leadership today devalues intelligence analysis. A fundamental change is also needed in attitudes and existing organizational cultures. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences ENGINEERING NATIONAL ACADEMIES OF SCIENCES (AND M.), National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (U.S.). Committee on a Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security, 2019 The Digest Version of A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis summarizes the most important ideas from the full report for the Intelligence Community to consider in the coming decade. This volume provides an overview of the primary opportunities that research in the social and behavioral sciences offers for strengthening national security, specifically the work of the intelligence analyst, and the conclusions and recommendations of the Committee on a Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Survey. This digest version is a succinct roadmap to the critical contribution researchers from these fields make to national security--Publisher's description |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Intelligence Success and Failure Uri Bar-Joseph, Rose McDermott, 2017 Machine generated contents note: -- Contents -- Introduction -- Part One: The Theoretical Framework -- Chapter I. Surprise Attack: A Framework for Discussion -- Chapter II. Examining the Learning Process -- Part Two: The Empirical Evidence -- The First Dyad: Barbarossa and the Battle for Moscow -- Case Study I: The Failure -- Case Study II: Success: The Battle for Moscow -- The Second Dyad: The USA in the Korean War -- Case study I: Failing to Forecast the War -- Case Study II: Failure II: The Chinese Intervention of Fall 1950 -- The Third Dyad: Intelligence Failure and Success in the War of Yom Kippur -- Case Study I: The Failure -- Case Study II: The Success -- Chapter VI. Conclusions |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Improving Intelligence Analysis in Policing Stuart Kirby, Scott Keay, 2021-06-08 This book explains how improvements in intelligence analysis can bene!t policing. Written by experts with experience in police higher education and professional practice, this accessible text provides students with both practical knowledge and a critical understanding of the subject. The book is divided into three key parts: Part One outlines how the concept of intelligence was initially embraced and implemented by the police and provides a critique of intelligence sources. It examines the strategic use of intelligence and its procedural framework. It provides a summary of the role of the intelligence analyst, establishing the characteristics of effective practitioners. Part Two describes good practice and explains the practical tools and techniques that effective analysts use in the reduction and investigation of crime. Part Three examines more recent developments in intelligence analysis and looks to the future. This includes the move to multi-agency working, the advent of big data and the role of AI and machine learning. Filled with case studies and practical examples, this book is essential reading for all undergraduates and postgraduates taking courses in Professional Policing, and Criminal Justice more widely. It will also be of interest to existing practitioners in this field. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Intelligence Analysis Wayne Michael Hall, Gary Citrenbaum, 2009-12-22 This book offers a vast conceptual and theoretical exploration of the ways intelligence analysis must change in order to succeed against today's most dangerous combatants and most complex irregular theatres of conflict. Intelligence Analysis: How to Think in Complex Environments fills a void in the existing literature on contemporary warfare by examining the theoretical and conceptual foundations of effective modern intelligence analysis—the type of analysis needed to support military operations in modern, complex operational environments. This volume is an expert guide for rethinking intelligence analysis and understanding the true nature of the operational environment, adversaries, and most importantly, the populace. Intelligence Analysis proposes substantive improvements in the way the U.S. national security system interprets intelligence, drawing on the groundbreaking work of theorists ranging from Carl von Clauswitz and Sun Tzu to M. Mitchell Waldrop, General David Petraeus, Richards Heuer, Jr., Orson Scott Card, and others. The new ideas presented here will help the nation to amass a formidable, cumulative intelligence power, with distinct advantages over any and all adversaries of the future regardless of the level of war or type of operational environment. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Cases in Intelligence Analysis Sarah Miller Beebe, Randolph H. Pherson, 2014-04-28 In their Second Edition of Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action, accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Sarah Miller Beebe and Randolph H. Pherson offer robust, class-tested cases studies of events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. Designed to give analysts-in-training an opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques and tackle real-life problems, each turnkey case delivers a captivating narrative, discussion questions, recommended readings, and a series of engaging analytic exercises. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Problem of Secret Intelligence Kjetil Anders Hatlebrekke, 2019-05-03 What is intelligence - why is it so hard to define, and why is there no systematic theory of intelligence? Kjetil Anders Hatlebrekke creates a new, systematic model of intelligence analysis, arguing that good intelligence is based on understanding the threats that appear beyond our experience, and are therefore the most dangerous to society. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: The Future of Intelligence Isabelle Duyvesteyn, Ben de Jong, Joop van Reijn, 2014-04-11 This volume discusses the challenges the future holds for different aspects of the intelligence process and for organisations working in the field. The main focus of Western intelligence services is no longer on the intentions and capabilities of the Soviet Union and its allies. Instead, at present, there is a plethora of threats and problems that deserve attention. Some of these problems are short-term and potentially acute, such as terrorism. Others, such as the exhaustion of natural resources, are longer-term and by nature often more difficult to foresee in their implications. This book analyses the different activities that make up the intelligence process, or the ‘intelligence cycle’, with a focus on changes brought about by external developments in the international arena, such as technology and security threats. Drawing together a range of key thinkers in the field, The Future of Intelligence examines possible scenarios for future developments, including estimations about their plausibility, and the possible consequences for the functioning of intelligence and security services. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, foreign policy, security studies and IR in general. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Strategic Warning Intelligence John A. Gentry, Joseph S. Gordon, 2019-03-01 John A. Gentry and Joseph S. Gordon update our understanding of strategic warning intelligence analysis for the twenty-first century. Strategic warning—the process of long-range analysis to alert senior leaders to trending threats and opportunities that require action—is a critical intelligence function. It also is frequently misunderstood and underappreciated. Gentry and Gordon draw on both their practitioner and academic backgrounds to present a history of the strategic warning function in the US intelligence community. In doing so, they outline the capabilities of analytic methods, explain why strategic warning analysis is so hard, and discuss the special challenges strategic warning encounters from senior decision-makers. They also compare how strategic warning functions in other countries, evaluate why the United States has in recent years emphasized current intelligence instead of strategic warning, and recommend warning-related structural and procedural improvements in the US intelligence community. The authors examine historical case studies, including postmortems of warning failures, to provide examples of the analytic points they make. Strategic Warning Intelligence will interest scholars and practitioners and will be an ideal teaching text for intermediate and advanced students. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: National Security Intelligence and Ethics Seumas Miller, Mitt Regan, Patrick F. Walsh, 2021-11-07 This volume examines the ethical issues that arise as a result of national security intelligence collection and analysis. Powerful new technologies enable the collection, communication and analysis of national security data on an unprecedented scale. Data collection now plays a central role in intelligence practice, yet this development raises a host of ethical and national security problems, such as privacy; autonomy; threats to national security and democracy by foreign states; and accountability for liberal democracies. This volume provides a comprehensive set of in-depth ethical analyses of these problems by combining contributions from both ethics scholars and intelligence practitioners. It provides the reader with a practical understanding of relevant operations, the issues that they raise and analysis of how responses to these issues can be informed by a commitment to liberal democratic values. This combination of perspectives is crucial in providing an informed appreciation of ethical challenges that is also grounded in the realities of the practice of intelligence. This book will be of great interest to all students of intelligence studies, ethics, security studies, foreign policy and international relations. The Open Access version of this book, available at www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts Noel Hendrickson, 2018-03-29 The goal of Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts is to address the three distinct dimensions of an analyst’s thinking: the person of the analyst (their traits), the processes they use (their techniques), and the problems they face (their targets). Based on a decade of academic research and university teaching in a program for aspiring intelligence analysts, this multidimensional approach will help the reader move beyond the traditional boundaries of accumulating knowledge or critical thinking with techniques to assess the unique targets of reasoning in the information age. This approach is not just a set of techniques, but covers all elements of reasoning by discussing the personal, procedural, and problem-specific aspects. It also addresses key challenges, such as uncertain data, irrelevant or misleading information, indeterminate outcomes, and significance for clients through an extensive examination of hypothesis development, causal analysis, futures exploration, and strategy assessment. Both critical and creative thinking, which are essential to reasoning in intelligence, are integrated throughout. Structured around independently readable chapters, this text offers a systematic approach to reasoning a long with an extensive toolkit that will serve the needs of both students and intelligence professionals. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis Richards J. Heuer Jr., 2014-05-28 In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Cognitive Task Analysis Jan Maarten Schraagen, Susan F. Chipman, Valerie L. Shalin, 2000-06-01 Cognitive task analysis is a broad area consisting of tools and techniques for describing the knowledge and strategies required for task performance. Cognitive task analysis has implications for the development of expert systems, training and instructional design, expert decision making and policymaking. It has been applied in a wide range of settings, with different purposes, for instance: specifying user requirements in system design or specifying training requirements in training needs analysis. The topics to be covered by this work include: general approaches to cognitive task analysis, system design, instruction, and cognitive task analysis for teams. The work settings to which the tools and techniques described in this work have been applied include: 911 dispatching, faultfinding on board naval ships, design aircraft, and various support systems. The editors' goal in this book is to present in a single source a comprehensive, in-depth introduction to the field of cognitive task analysis. They have attempted to include as many examples as possible in the book, making it highly suitable for those wishing to undertake a cognitive task analysis themselves. The book also contains a historical introduction to the field and an annotated bibliography, making it an excellent guide to additional resources. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Revisiting Intelligence and Policy Stephen Marrin, 2023-04-14 The relationship between intelligence organizations and the national security policymakers which they support has its ups and downs. Sometimes the relationship is a good one; communication flows and both sides benefit from the interaction, but sometimes difficulties arise and problems develop. For example, when knowledge is required for decision but is not available or is inaccurate the outcome is frequently described as an intelligence failure. A subset of this kind of intelligence failure occurs when knowledge is distorted in order to reinforce or oppose policymaker preferences or expectations. Another less successful outcome occurs when good, accurate knowledge is not used to improve policy, but is instead set aside or ignored by those who have the responsibility and obligation to make decisions. This collection explores the difficulties that can arise in the relationship between intelligence and policy. The chapters consider both politicization of, and lack of receptiveness to, intelligence on the part of policymakers from a variety of different angles. Readers will find that this book challenges conventional wisdom and offers new ways of thinking about this important but understudied area. This book was published as a special issue of Intelligence and National Security. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Communicating with Intelligence James S. Major, 2012 |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: National Intelligence and Science Wilhelm Agrell, Gregory F. Treverton, 2015 Intelligence is currently facing increasingly challenging cross-pressures from both a need for accurate and timely assessments of potential or imminent security threats and the unpredictability of many of these emerging threats. The essence of intelligence is no longer the collection, analysis, and dissemination of secret information, but has become instead the management of uncertainty in areas critical for overriding security goals. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Technology and the Intelligence Community Margaret E. Kosal, 2018-03-19 This volume examines the role of technology in gathering, assimilating and utilizing intelligence information through the ages. Pushing the boundaries of existing works, the articles contained here take a broad view of the use and implementation of technology and intelligence procedures during the cold war era and the space race, the September 2011 attacks, and more recent cyber operations. It looks at the development of different technologies, procedural implications thereof, and the underlying legal and ethical implications. The findings are then used to explore the future trends in technology including cyber operations, big data, open source intelligence, smart cities, and augmented reality. Starting from the core aspects of technical capabilities the articles dig deeper, exploring the hard and soft infrastructure of intelligence gathering procedures and focusing on the human and bureaucratic procedures involved therein. Technology and innovation have played an important role in determining the course of development of the intelligence community. Intelligence gathering for national security, however, is not limited only to the thread of technical capabilities but is a complex fabric of organizational structures, systemic undercurrents, and the role of personnel in key positions of decision making. The book’s findings and conclusions encompass not just temporal variation but also cut across a diverse set of issue areas. This compilation is uniquely placed in the interdisciplinary space combining the lessons from key cases in the past to current developments and implementation of technology options. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Improving Intelligence Analysis Stephen Marrin, 2012-08-21 This book on intelligence analysis written by intelligence expert Dr. Stephen Marrin argues that scholarship can play a valuable role in improving intelligence analysis. Improving intelligence analysis requires bridging the gap between scholarship and practice. Compared to the more established academic disciplines of political science and international relations, intelligence studies scholarship is generally quite relevant to practice. Yet a substantial gap exists nonetheless. Even though there are many intelligence analysts, very few of them are aware of the various writings on intelligence analysis which could help them improve their own processes and products. If the gap between scholarship and practice were to be bridged, practitioners would be able to access and exploit the literature in order to acquire new ways to think about, frame, conceptualize, and improve the analytic process and the resulting product. This volume contributes to the broader discussion regarding mechanisms and methods for improving intelligence analysis processes and products. It synthesizes these articles into a coherent whole, linking them together through common themes, and emphasizes the broader vision of intelligence analysis in the introduction and conclusion chapters. The book will be of great interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, US national security, US foreign policy, security studies and political science in general,as well as professional intelligence analysts and managers. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Intelligence Analysis as Discovery of Evidence, Hypotheses, and Arguments Gheorghe Tecuci, David A. Schum, Dorin Marcu, Mihai Boicu, 2016-08-30 Using a flexible software system, this book teaches evidential and inferential issues used in drawing conclusions from masses of evidence. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Transforming U.S. Intelligence Jennifer E. Sims, Burton Gerber, 2005-08-24 The intelligence failures exposed by the events of 9/11 and the missing weapons of mass destruction in Iraq have made one thing perfectly clear: change is needed in how the U.S. intelligence community operates. Transforming U.S. Intelligence argues that transforming intelligence requires as much a look to the future as to the past and a focus more on the art and practice of intelligence rather than on its bureaucratic arrangements. In fact, while the recent restructuring, including the creation of the Department of Homeland Security, may solve some problems, it has also created new ones. The authors of this volume agree that transforming policies and practices will be the most effective way to tackle future challenges facing the nation's security. This volume's contributors, who have served in intelligence agencies, the Departments of State or Defense, and the staffs of congressional oversight committees, bring their experience as insiders to bear in thoughtful and thought-provoking essays that address what such an overhaul of the system will require. In the first section, contributors discuss twenty-first-century security challenges and how the intelligence community can successfully defend U.S. national interests. The second section focuses on new technologies and modified policies that can increase the effectiveness of intelligence gathering and analysis. Finally, contributors consider management procedures that ensure the implementation of enhanced capabilities in practice. Transforming U.S. Intelligence supports the mandate of the new director of national intelligence by offering both careful analysis of existing strengths and weaknesses in U.S. intelligence and specific recommendations on how to fix its problems without harming its strengths. These recommendations, based on intimate knowledge of the way U.S. intelligence actually works, include suggestions for the creative mixing of technologies with new missions to bring about the transformation of U.S. intelligence without incurring unnecessary harm or expense. The goal is the creation of an intelligence community that can rapidly respond to developments in international politics, such as the emergence of nimble terrorist networks while reconciling national security requirements with the rights and liberties of American citizens. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Social and Behavioral Sciences for National Security National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, 2017-06-12 In the coming years, complex domestic and international environments and challenges to national security will continue. Intelligence analysts and the intelligence community will need access to the appropriate tools and developing knowledge about threats to national security in order to provide the best information to policy makers. Research and knowledge from the social and behavioral sciences (SBS) can help inform the work of intelligence analysis; however, in the past, bringing important findings from research to bear on the day-to-day work of intelligence analysis has been difficult. In order to understand how knowledge from science can be directed and applied to help the intelligence community fulfill its critical responsibilities, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine will undertake a 2-year survey of the social and behavioral sciences. To launch this discussion, a summit designed to highlight cutting-edge research and identify future directions for research in a few areas of the social and behavioral sciences was held in October 2016. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the summit. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: The Logic of Intelligence Analysis Karl Spielmann, 2018-06-12 This book discusses the application of hypothesis testing to the practice of intelligence analysis. By drawing on longstanding procedures of scientific method, particularly hypothesis testing, this book strongly critiques standard intelligence analytic practices. It shows these practices to be inadequate, as they are illogical in terms of what formal philosophy says any intelligence analysts can realistically be expected to know, and for the future when analysts will face pressures to adapt to digital age modeling techniques. The methodology focuses on identifying and remedying analytic errors caused by analyst cognitive biases and by foreign denial and deception. To demonstrate that it is a practical tool, it walks analysts through a case study, step by step, to show how its hypothesis testing can be implemented. It also invites a comparative test in the real world with any other intelligence methodologies to assess its strengths and weaknesses in predicting the outcome of an actual live intelligence issue. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, public policy and national security, as well as practitioners. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: The Art and Science of Intelligence Analysis Julian Richards, 2010-05-27 Written for trainers and analysts in British policing and security services, this book takes a practical look at intelligence analysis by synthesising the key issues and providing context. With case studies and scenario-based exercises, the author presents practical recommendations for training and analysis. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Social Network Analysis and Law Enforcement Morgan Burcher, 2020-07-24 This book examines the use of social network analysis (SNA) in operational environments from the perspective of those who actually apply it. A rapidly growing body of literature suggests that SNA can reveal significant insights into the overall structure of criminal networks as well as the position of critical actors within such groups. This book draws on the existing SNA and intelligence literature, as well as qualitative interviews with crime intelligence analysts from two Australian state law enforcement agencies to understand its use by law enforcement agencies and the extent to which it can be used in practice. It includes a discussion of the challenges that analysts face when attempting to apply various network analysis techniques to criminal networks. Overall, it advances SNA as an investigative tool, and provides a significant contribution to the field that will be of interest to both researchers and practitioners interested in social network analysis, intelligence analysis and law enforcement. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Analytic Culture in the US Intelligence Community Rob Johnson, 2005-09-01 Johnson, an anthropologist, writes on the basis of an intimate knowledge of the world of intelligence. He conducted hundreds of interviews & observed & participated in dozens of work groups in intelligence analysis. Contents: Research Findings; Ethnography of Analysis: A Taxonomy of Intelligence Variables; & Testing the Intelligence Cycle Through Systems Modeling & Simulation; Areas for Improvement: Integrating Methodologists into Teams of Experts; The Question of Foreign Cultures: Combating Ethnocentrism in Intelligence Analysis; Instructional Technology: Effectiveness & Implications for the Intelligence Community; Organizational Culture: Anticipatory Socialization & Intelligence Analysis; & Recommendations. Bibliography. Illus. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Intelligence and Surprise Attack Erik J. Dahl, 2013-07-19 How can the United States avoid a future surprise attack on the scale of 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, in an era when such devastating attacks can come not only from nation states, but also from terrorist groups or cyber enemies? Intelligence and Surprise Attack examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most cases, warnings had been available beforehand. Erik J. Dahl challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure, which holds that attacks succeed because important warnings get lost amid noise or because intelligence officials lack the imagination and collaboration to “connect the dots” of available information. Comparing cases of intelligence failure with intelligence success, Dahl finds that the key to success is not more imagination or better analysis, but better acquisition of precise, tactical-level intelligence combined with the presence of decision makers who are willing to listen to and act on the warnings they receive from their intelligence staff. The book offers a new understanding of classic cases of conventional and terrorist attacks such as Pearl Harbor, the Battle of Midway, and the bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The book also presents a comprehensive analysis of the intelligence picture before the 9/11 attacks, making use of new information available since the publication of the 9/11 Commission Report and challenging some of that report’s findings. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Handbook of Intelligence Studies Loch K. Johnson, 2007-01-24 This topical volume offers a comprehensive review of secret intelligence organizations and activities. Intelligence has been in the news consistently since 9/11 and the Iraqi WMD errors. Leading experts in the field approach the three major missions of intelligence: collection-and-analysis; covert action; and counterintelligence. Within each of these missions, the dynamically written essays dissect the so-called intelligence cycle to reveal the challenges of gathering and assessing information from around the world. Covert action, the most controversial intelligence activity, is explored, with special attention on the issue of military organizations moving into what was once primarily a civilian responsibility. The authors furthermore examine the problems that are associated with counterintelligence, protecting secrets from foreign spies and terrorist organizations, as well as the question of intelligence accountability, and how a nation can protect its citizens against the possible abuse of power by its own secret agencies. The Handbook of Intelligence Studies is a benchmark publication with major importance both for current research and for the future of the field. It is essential reading for advanced undergraduates, graduate students and scholars of intelligence studies, international security, strategic studies and political science in general. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Competitive Intelligence, Analysis and Strategy Sheila Wright, 2014-07-10 The Holy Grail for most organisations is the successful attainment, and retention, of inimitable competitive advantage. This book addresses the question of how to leverage the unique intangible assets of an organisation: its explicit, implicit, acquired and derived knowledge. The refreshingly innovative concept of Intelligence-Based Competitive Advantage© is one which will eclipse the cost-driven and resource-reduction attitudes most prevalent in the first decade of this century. Tomorrow’s organisation will need to derive IBCA© through the expert execution of bespoke competitive intelligence practice, unique analytical processes, pioneering competitive strategy formulation, and timely execution of all three, if they are to succeed. This volume consists of insights from Competitive Intelligence practices at both country and organisational level, Competitive Analysis processes within the firm and within challenging sector and economic environments and Competitive Strategy formulation in profit, non-profit, real and virtual world contexts. It is essential reading for anybody wishing to gain a formal understanding of the practical and intellectual challenges which will face organisations in the future as they strive to achieve strategic foresight and Intelligence-Based Competitive Advantage. This book was originally published as two special issues of the Journal of Strategic Marketing. |
| challenges of intelligence analysis: Priorities for GEOINT Research at the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Earth Sciences and Resources, Mapping Science Committee, Committee on Basic and Applied Research Priorities in Geospatial Science for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, 2006-06-10 The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) provides geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) to support national security, both as a national intelligence and a combat support agency. In the post-9/11 world, the need for faster and more accurate geospatial intelligence is increasing. GEOINT uses imagery and geospatial data and information to provide knowledge for planning, decisions, and action. For example, data from satellites, pilotless aircraft and ground sensors are integrated with maps and other intelligence data to provide location information on a potential target. This report defines 12 hard problems in geospatial science that NGA must resolve in order to evolve their capabilities to meet future needs. Many of the hard research problems are related to integration of data collected from an ever-growing variety of sensors and non-spatial data sources, and analysis of spatial data collected during a sequence of time (spatio-temporal data). The report also suggests promising approaches in geospatial science and related disciplines for meeting these challenges. The results of this study are intended to help NGA prioritize geospatial science research directions. |
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